Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. The market seems intent on pulling back here:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy

    Methinks the hope was drunk
    Wherein it dressed itself and it hath slept since
    And wakes it now, to look so green and pale
    At what it did so freely.
     
    #471     Apr 15, 2013
  2. There's been a big explosion in Boston at the finish line to the Boston Marathon.

    Everybody is being deployed in New York City including police reserves. They are all armed to the teeth.

    Something is up.
     
    #472     Apr 15, 2013
  3. Commodities:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/brutal-trading-continues-gold-mining-031551570.html

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmo...of-another-financial-crisis/?partner=yahootix

    Just when I switched to commodities because I thought the stock market was over-bought... commodities crash.

    Luckily I switched to DBA (agricultural commodities) which excludes gold, silver and copper :

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=gld,^GSPC&s=DBA&ql=1

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DBA&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=JJC,^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=DBA&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=SLV&ql=1&c=^GSPC

    So that yesterday my losses were minimal. So now I have to decide if I will abandon DBA because of the crash in the metals... or stick it out.

    I still believe that stocks and metal commodities (GLD,SLV,JJC) are over bought while agricultural commodities like corn are not:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=DBA&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=gld,^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=DBA&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=CORN&ql=1&c=^GSPC

    BTW: Bonds also held their own yesterday:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5d&s=TLT&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=GLD&ql=1&c=^GSPC
     
    #473     Apr 16, 2013
  4. http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/17/politics/senate-guns-vote/index.html

    I think this is shameful.

    While I don't consider myself a died-in-the-wool 'gun nut' I own several guns and have a concealed carry permit.

    I have no problem with being checked out whenever I buy a gun and would have no problem with a ban on large capacity magazines. It would not inhibit unduly any legitimate use or transaction.

    Where I am living right now (South Carolina) there are much more stringent requirements for gun ownership than those proposed in the federal legislation and I don't see that this presents a problem for anyone.

    e.g. Here in SC you must attend a day long training session (costs about $100) in order to get a concealed carry permit and I think that is fine. It means that real nuts can be weeded out (they will flunk you if you are a kook or otherwise dangerous).

    No... I don't think any of the recent massacres would have been avoided by any of the federal restrictions that have been proposed. In all instances the guns that were used could still be obtained under the proposed legislation.

    But we have to do something. It is just too easy for criminals and crazy people to obtain modern weapons and use them to slaughter innocent people.

    I really thought the Connecticut massacre would push the country over the line but apparently not.

    Actually it is the ease with which criminals etc. can get guns that makes me carry one. When I got my carry permit I was very hesitant to actually carry my gun, and I thought long and hard about doing so. The worst thing that could possibly happen to me is for me to accidentally kill an innocent person. To me that is a worse risk than being killed by an attacker because I am unarmed.

    My solution has been to obtain professional training in handling and using my weapons so that I don't pose a risk to the innocent.

    If I thought that the government could protect me I would gladly give up my guns and my carry permit. It would actually be something of a relief.

    But they can't protect me and I MUST protect myself if I am going to avoid being a victim.

    It's a hell of a world.

    (sorry to be off topic)
     
    #474     Apr 17, 2013
  5. CLB:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ahead-bell-core-labs-rallies-131203166.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/core-lab-posts-stellar-1q-180501595.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CLB+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=clb

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CLB&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CLB&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade #1:
    June 95/90 bull put spread for a net credit of $20
    Yield = 20/480 = 4.2% in 64 days or 24% annualized
    Prob = 99%
    Expectation = .99(20) - .005(480) - .005(240) = 19.8 - 2.4 - 1.2 = 16.2 (ann = 19%)

    Trade #2
    Sept 95/90 bull put spread for a net credit of $55
    Yield = 55/445 = 12.4% in 155 days or 29% annualized
    Prob = 93%
    Expectation = .93(55) - .04(445) - .03(223) = 51.2 - 17.8 - 6.7 = 26.7 (ann = 14%)
     
    #475     Apr 18, 2013
  6. #477     Apr 20, 2013
  7. #478     Apr 22, 2013
  8. XOM:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-1q-earnings-rise-production-194046498.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=XOM+Key+Statistics

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=XOM&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=XOM&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1

    Trade:

    Jan '14 70/65 bull put spread for a net credit of $34
    Yield = 34/466 = 7.3% in 267 days or 10% annualized.
    Prob = 95.3%
    Expectation = .953(34) - .015(466) -.032(233) = 33.4 - 7.0 - 7.5 = 18.9

    Alt:

    Oct '13 70/65 bull put spread for a net credit of $17
    Yield = 17/483 = 3.5% in 176 days or 7.3% annualized
    Prob = 98%
    Expectation = .98(17) - .01(483) - .01(242) = 16.7 - 4.83 - 2.42 = 9.45
     
    #479     Apr 25, 2013