Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. NOEXPERT,....You can relax.
    No one even suspects that you are a friend of Danshirley, or that he asked you to defend him.
    OOPS!
    I'll give you the last word for the evening.
    LOL!
     
    #291     Aug 9, 2012
  2. http://finance.yahoo.com/news/weak-coal-demand-leads-james-120202167.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tough-coal-market-means-big-125427144.html

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...ook-as-export-market-awash-2-.html?cmpid=yhoo

    http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-end-of-coal-burning-in-the-us

    Three coal companies:

    ANR:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ANR+Basic+Chart
    Jan 10/15 bear call spread for a net credit of $28
    Yield = 28/472 = 5.9% in 162 days or 13.4% annualized
    Prob = 85%
    Expectation = .85(28) - .05(472) - .1(236) = 23.8 - 23.6 - 23.6 = -23.4

    JRCC:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=jrcc&ql=1
    Jan 5/8 bear call spread for a credit of $25
    Yield = 25/275 = 9.1% or 20.5% annualized
    Prob = 90%
    Expectation = .9(25) - .05(275) - .05(137) = 22.5 - 13.7 - 6.8 = 2

    ACI:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ACI&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=
    Jan 10/12.5 bear call spread for net credit of $21
    Yield = 27/223 = 12.1% in 162 days or 27.3% annualized
    Prob = 84%
    Expectation = .84(27) - .073(223) - .087(112) = 22.7 - 16.3 - 9.7 = -3.3

    Caveat Emptor

    The ignore list is great... I have like 4 blank pages behind this one.

    What is wrong with people???

    BTW: If you can't get a fill solve the problem yourself... don't bother me.
     
    #292     Aug 9, 2012
  3. Oh my Go you guys have been blowing up dudes thread

    You guys should do.something more productive
     
    #293     Aug 9, 2012
  4. ANR looks interesting:



    NEW YORK (AP) -- Coal producer Alpha Natural Resources Inc. said Wednesday it lost $2.2 billion in the second quarter as the industry struggled to compete with cheap natural gas and demand waned in some key markets.

    Alpha recorded about $2.5 billion in pretax charges for restructuring and the declining value of some assets. But even without those charges, its loss was larger than Wall Street expected.

    Revenue rose 15 percent to $1.85 billion but that also came in below expectations.

    The coal industry has been battered this year by a combination of factors: Many U.S. utilities are favoring cheap natural gas to generate electricity instead of coal. Mild weather further reduced demand. And recession in many European countries combined with a slowdown in once red-hot Asian growth stifled exports. Alpha mines thermal coal used for power generation and metallurgical coal, used to produce steel.

    [​IMG]

    Margin details
    For the quarter, gross margin was 11.3%, 1,710 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Operating margin was -5.6%, 1,930 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter. Net margin was -120.9%, 11,750 basis points worse than the prior-year quarter.

    Looking ahead
    Next quarter's average estimate for revenue is $1.80 billion. On the bottom line, the average EPS estimate is -$0.24.

    Next year's average estimate for revenue is $7.33 billion. The average EPS estimate is -$1.07.

    Investor sentiment
    The stock has a three-star rating (out of five) at Motley Fool CAPS, with 865 members out of 922 rating the stock outperform, and 57 members rating it underperform. Among 167 CAPS All-Star picks (recommendations by the highest-ranked CAPS members), 150 give Alpha Natural Resources a green thumbs-up, and 17 give it a red thumbs-down.

    Of Wall Street recommendations tracked by S&P Capital IQ, the average opinion on Alpha Natural Resources is outperform, with an average price target of $18.77.

    Some stuff on JRCC

    RICHMOND, Va. (AP) -- James River Coal Co. said Thursday it posted a $25.8 million second-quarter loss, hurt by weak coal demand and prices.

    Despite the loss, the results were better than Wall Street expected and James River shares rose nearly 8 percent in premarket trading. The stock has lost about two-thirds of its value in 2012 on a broad slump in coal demand.

    James River mines thermal coal used for power generation and metallurgical coal, used to produce steel.

    The coal industry has been battered this year as U.S. utilities switch to cheap natural gas to generate electricity instead of coal, mild weather in the U.S. hurt demand and the recession in many European countries, combined with a slowdown in Asia, stifled exports.

    The Richmond, Va., miner said it remains cautious on steelmaking coal because of the weak global economy, while it believes the market for thermal coal is just beginning to show signs of recovery.

    The company's loss amounted to 74 cents per share in the April-June quarter, compared with a profit of $789, 000, or 2 cents per share, in the same period last year.

    Revenue tumbled 21 percent to $277.4 million from $352 million, as coal sales dropped 21 percent to $259.6 million. Coal shipments fell 11 percent to 2.9 million tons.

    Analysts, on average, expected a loss of 80 cents per share on $276 million in revenue, according to a FactSet poll.

    James River shares rose 17 cents, or 7.6 percent, to $2.40 in premarket trading.

    http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=JRCC&t=5d&q=&l=&z=l&a=v&p=s&lang=en-US&region=US
     
    #294     Aug 9, 2012
  5. this looks exactly like Alcoa or any of the other big industrials... same chart.. Natural Gas story continues..
     
    #295     Aug 9, 2012
  6. I agree .... good industry to invest in. I like this one the best.

    ACI:
    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ACI...=off&z=l&q=l&c=
    Jan 10/12.5 bear call spread for net credit of $21
    Yield = 27/223 = 12.1% in 162 days or 27.3% annualized
    Prob = 84%
    Expectation = .84(27) - .073(223) - .087(112) = 22.7 - 16.3 - 9.7 = -3.3
     
    #296     Aug 9, 2012
  7. i've looked at calenders on these.. buy leaps over write front months .. work a free position in with delta hedgin.. not free.. but work your cost out of it ..
     
    #297     Aug 9, 2012
  8. cdcaveman

    Post some trades for us... please.
     
    #298     Aug 9, 2012
  9. #299     Aug 9, 2012
  10. Preparing to go on the road for a while.

    Will not be back until a week from this coming Monday. I may peek in while waiting for a flight... but that's about all.

    seize you later.

    :)
     
    #300     Aug 9, 2012