in this months Stocks and Commodities Magazine that talked all about managing Iron condors.. Talking about Rolling the trade.. Ideas related to how much gamma exposure is the sign to roll out the strikes.. i've thought about trying it myself.. the example is with the RUT i haven't got alot of experience with butterflys or condors.. but i love the idea of the butterfly being able to be short premium with defined risk .. and a really good profit profile if set up right.. i would definitely check that article out
this is an interesting part of the article i'm talking about.. "Queen of condors" Changes over the years include days to expiration and entry style. She began with more customary 30- and 60-day condors, one of each, but she has now settled on the longer time frame due to the volatility in the market. She originally legged into the trade, selling put credit spread side when the market was down, selling the call credit spread when the market rebounded, but since then has decided it is simpler, more effective, and more carefree to put it all on at once, because losses on one side will be offset by gains on the other. Unlike many traders whose ambition is to get big as fast as possible, which for most means 100-contract condors and up, thus theoretically putting $90,000 and more of risk on the table each month, Amy Meissner is more stealth. For every 100 contracts of a typical 10-point condor, she will trade 25 contracts of a 30-point condor instead, cutting her risk to about $65,000. Why not 10-point wide strikes in her RUT condors, like most everyone else in options? Adjusting large quantities of contracts is a factor. Start with 25, roll twice for adjustments, and you wind up with about 55 to 60 contracts, versus 225 with a 100-contract start increased twice at 150%. Fifty-five contracts is much more manageable than 225 contracts, Meissner says. Her profit target is approximately 80% of the original credit. If she is taking in $10,000 on a typical trade on initiation (25 contracts x $4 x $100 per point on the RUT), and she can offset her positions and capture $8,000, sheâs out. Often this is the case after 45 days.
The method Meissnerâs methods have been refined a bit since she started trading iron condors, but hereâs her latest methodology (Figure 1). Approximately 80 to 88 days out she will sell a Russell 2000 iron condor. She sells the puts at minus 8 delta or so, the calls at 12 delta or thereabouts, and then buys coverage some 30 points higher on the calls, 30 points lower on the puts. She aims to generate an approximate $4 credit against a $30 risk. The total cash credit then would be about $4,000 for every 10 contracts â that is, $4 credit x 10 contracts x $100 per contract. Should the market move against her, which is often the case, she will adjust at -16 delta, meaning that if the market declines, she will buy in her put credit spread, and then resell it 30 RUT points lower. She will sell 150% of the original size as well to make up for the loss (if the original position was 20 contracts, she will sell 30 on the adjustment). She can do this two or three times before giving up on a trade and either taking a loss or scratching out. If the market declines and the call credit spread goes to 0.40 or under (from an original $2 or so), she will exit, and not resell it lower. This removes the possibility of whiplash should the market bounce back up and cause a new call spread to become a loser very quickly. The process is reversed to the upside (Figure 2). Changes over the years include days to expiration and entry style. She began with more customary 30- and 60-day condors, one of each, but she has now settled on the longer time frame due to the volatility in the market. She originally legged into the trade, selling put credit spread side when the market was down, selling the call credit spread when the market rebounded, but since then has decided it is simpler, more effective, and more carefree to put it all on at once, because losses on one side will be offset by gains on the other.
what are IC's i would never think to Leg into a Condor.. thats a recipe for a whipsaw.. nor would i ever leg out of a trade.. i tried that once with a calender strangle and paid for the mistake!
LXK: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lexmark-warns-2q-letdown-stock-004437512.html ('timing' would seem to favor a bearish trade... see below) http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=LXK+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=lxk http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LXK&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With LXK at 24.31 Jan 20/15 bull put spread for a net credit of $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 189 days or 21.4% annualized Prob = 81% Expectation = .81(50) - .03(450) - .16(225) = 40.5 - 13.5 -36 = -9 Based on expectation this is not a viable trade. I will look again when the market is open to see if the numbers are any better, or if I can find a better trade. At this point I don't think so. If LXK were on my list of recession resistant stocks I would be more optimistic, but it is not for the following reason: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=LXK&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC i.e. LXK is following it's 5 year pattern of being more susceptible to recession than the market as a whole. Not something I want to be in if I think we are in for some down in the economy and the market. To try to answer some questions: Are these real trades?? The trades I post here are possibilities not trades. For me this is part one: trade discovery. Part two is portfolio management. If I find a trade in part one that also fits my portfolio needs I will try to take it... but I need to get the numbers that my stats specify to make it an actual trade. What about timing?? I don't pay any attention whatsoever to technical analysis style timing. All the studies that have been published say that technical analysis doesn't work. I don't believe in it and don't follow it. Yet I do consider my trades timed. My timing is set by the news on the stock and the news on the market. If I am going to do a bull put spread for example I want the stock to have had some announcement that makes it likely that the stock will have a positive bias to it for the length of the trade. e.g. exceeding estimates on earnings, takeover announcements, analyst recommendations etc. Something that will give the stock a positive aura for the length of my trade. If I am instituting a bear call spread I will want the opposite. I also want the market in general to support the trade or at least be neutral. In the Lexmark trade I am anti-timing . i.e. you would think that the recent news would favor a bearish trade rather than a bullish trade. But this is not always so. e.g. Sometimes negative news will drop a basically good stock so as to present an opportunity to enter an advantageous trade that has not been available before. Also small timing issues such as small spikes on news, while important if I am buying the stock, really have no impact on doing longer term, deep in the money option trades. It just doesn't matter. Adjustments: Never. The trade is on or off. I never 'adjust' by for example rolling up or rolling down etc. I don't even think about it. Success: In the past five years I have had to bail on maybe 3 or 4 trades... which is pretty good considering I typically carry 15-20 trades at a time. When I do have to bail it is expensive so I try to make my entry carefully. I know all about 'picking up nickels ahead of a steam roller'. It's a dangerous game and you just have to be carefull. Strategy: My use of probability and expectation follows exactly what McMillan (and others) sets out in his books and articles. Some people seem to think it is an 'unusual approach' . I think it is quite common and that those people who think it is unusual need to get some reading done. That's all I can remember now. Also note: I do not post on this thread to engage in conversations about trading. I would rather keep this thread to be my place to post trades and their rationale so that I can refer back to them while I move about during the day. I have done this for years and it is part of my daily routine. If I have anything to contribute to conversations going on in other threads I will post that contribution there. In accordance with the above I have all regular posters on my ignore list and will not usually see their posts unless I browse by when I am not logged on... which is what prompted this post. Thanks
The high frequency of trades, the number of high priced stocks, the slow frequency of trades expiring, the number of stocks trading at or near all time highs on initiation day, treating all spreads as equals regardless of price, not taking advantage of time decay, and so on..... tell me most of the trades are theoretical. Not actual. Particularly since he rarely makes it clear whether the trade was actually initiated. Again, nothing wrong with that. I like getting suggestions to consider. I view it as a fun and useful experience. And I don't mean to sound insulting. I just don't believe most are actual trades.
I just read his post stating that his trades are just "possibilities". So please forgive my post above.
I don't get offended easy.. And I understand that this is your place the poster theoretical trades. Technical analysis or the idea of technical analysis is sort of ambiguous that you're using technical analysis if you're analyzing volatility graph or anything on a graph you are but I understand you're saying if your talking about in the typical sense with head and shoulder patterns in all the other patterns in randomness the most densely mean nothing