BCS and more on XLF: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424053111904317504577494901432326104.html?mod=BOL_hpp_dc http://finance.yahoo.com/news/barclays-penalized-libor-probe-153518844.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/hagens-berman-files-class-action-005400444.html http://seekingalpha.com/article/706731-the-latest-crisis-now-unfolding-on-wall-street?source=yahoo http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/07/05/lie-more-as-a-business-model/?partner=yahoofinance http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BCS&t=1y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BCS&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: With BCS at 10.27 Jan '13 12.50/15 bear call spread for $35 Yield = 35/215 = 16.3% in 194 days or 30.6% annualized Prob: N/A Expectation:N/A A topical but not 'conservative' trade. There's a tremendous amount of information being generated and I can only get a general sense of where things are probably going. The 'conservative' thing to do would be to stay far away from the global banks for at least 10 years... maybe more. I believe the XLF trade above is more conservative in my usual sense of the word.
AGP: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2012/07/...-expansion-with-amerigroup-deal/?mod=yahoo_hs http://www.marketwatch.com/story/am...nt-deal-sector-soars-2012-07-09?siteid=yhoof2 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AGP Trade: Jan '14 90/85 bull put spread for a net of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in ? days... 10 months at the outside Annualized > 7.5*360/300 = 9% annualized Prob = NA Expectation = NA
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/regulator-220-million-missing-iowa-023341172.html The problem with the world is that it is full of people. When is late too late? Hello darkness, my old friend I've come to talk with you again Because a vision softly creeping Left its seeds while I was sleeping And the vision that was planted in my brain Still remains Within the sound of silence In restless dreams I walked alone Narrow streets of cobblestone 'Neath the halo of a street lamp I turned my collar to the cold and damp When my eyes were stabbed by the flash of a neon light That split the night And touched the sound of silence And in the naked light I saw Ten thousand people, maybe more People talking without speaking People hearing without listening People writing songs that voices never share And no one dared Disturb the sound of silence "Fools", said I, "You do not know Silence like a cancer grows Hear my words that I might teach you Take my arms that I might reach you" But my words, like silent raindrops fell And echoed In the wells of silence And the people bowed and prayed To the neon god they made And the sign flashed out its warning In the words that it was forming And the sign said, "The words of the prophets are written on the subway walls And tenement halls" And whispered in the sounds of silence
AA: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/10/b...loss-in-2nd-quarter.html?partner=yahoofinance http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alcoa-slides-2q-loss-backs-001936514.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=AA+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AA&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=AA Trade: Oct 10/15/7/2 iron condor for a net credit of $35 Yield = 35/465 = 7.5% in 102 days or 26.9% annualized Prob: 23% above/16% below = 77% Expectation: NWC
SPY: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy Trade: With SPY @ 136.09 AUG 132/135/140 'broken wing' butterfly for a net credit of $30 39 days to expiration Price................P/L 130.................30 132.................30 135..............327 136..............224 138................0 140..............(170) 145..............(170)
SPY Ctd: Filled the butterfly at $15 credit http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spy This gives the following: with SPY at 134.80 and 39 days to expiration Price................P/L 130.................15 132.................15 135...............312 136...............213 138................0 140..............(185) 145..............(185) AGP Ctd: Filled AGP at $50 credit http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=agp Jan '14 90/85 bull put spread for a net of $50 Yield = 50/450= 11.1% in ? days... 10 months at the outside Annualized > 11.1*360/300 = 13.2% annualized Prob = NA Expectation = NA I don't post fills per se but I was asked.
PG: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/procter-gamble-lands-in-ackmans-sights-2012-07-12?siteid=yhoof2 http://finance.yahoo.com/news/procter-gamble-pg-050003399.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bearish-procter-gamble-181515565.html http://seekingalpha.com/article/714301-procter-gamble-is-about-to-slow-way-down?source=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=PG+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=PG http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=PG&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: with PG at 63.70 Jan '13 47.50/50/75/77.50 Iron Condor for a net credit of $20 Yield = 20/230 = 8.7% in 190 days or 16.7% annualized Prob = 3% downside/8% upside = 92% Expectation = .92(20) - .05(230) - .03(115) = 18.4 - 11.5 - 3.5 = 3.4 P&G isn't going anywhere. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_condor
Now I'm curious do you manage these trades. What I mean by that is that you gain exposure to gamma do you roll down or up and strikes.. Or do you have like a break off points where you close down position or have you even thought about it
My sense is most of these are not actual trades. Thus nothing to manage. Merely hypothetical... "what if's". Nothing wrong with that, as a learning tool, to look back on. I just have a difficult time taking the timing of most of these trades seriously. But I could be wrong.
My guess is that these trades are meant to expire worthless. The credit is small and time decay doesn't really start until the last month. Looks like the tree is starting to bear fruit. The trades that danshirley posts are mostly - if not all - long term trades and you can have a quick look at the results. I did a quick look and found zero losing trades, but because of the high risk/reward ratio in the individual trades you do have to be alert as one bad trade can wipe out 10 good trades. So far though it looks good.