GIS: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/general-mills-eps-beats-sales-161517496.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambr...-estimates-but-outlook-weak/?partner=yahootix http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=GIS+Key+Statistics {low beta} http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=GIS http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=GIS&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GIS&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=GIS&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Jan '13 32/30 bull put spread for $20 Yield = 20/180 = 11.1% in 204 days or 19.1% annualized Prob = 94% Expectation = .94(20) - .02(180) - .04(90) = 18.8 - 3.6 - 3.6 = 11.6
OBAMACARE: An up-to-date history and summary of provisions: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patient_Protection_and_Affordable_Care_Act
ESRX: http://blogs.wsj.com/health/2012/06...for-pharmacies-benefit-managers/?mod=yahoo_hs http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ESRX+Profile http://www.thestreet.com/story/1160...h-services-winner.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/news/express-scripts-reports-first-quarter-200100243.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ESRX+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=esrx http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ESRX&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=ESRX&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: Jan '13 35/32.5 bull put spread for $15 Yield = 15/235 = 5.38% in 203 days or 11.5% annualized Prob = 98% Expectation = .98(15) - .01(235) - .01(117) = 14.7 - 2.35 - 1.17 = 11.2
BA: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fedex-buy-additional-aircraft-boeing-213036296.html http://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/...oised-to-double-cash-flow-in-3.html?ana=yfcpc http://www.bizjournals.com/seattle/news/2012/06/27/boeing-preparing-for-possible-huge.html?ana=yfcpc http://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-787-dreamliner-makes-philadelphia-220000123.html http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...h-cash-to-reward-shareholders.html?cmpid=yhoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BA+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=BA http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BA&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Jan '13 50/45 bull put spread for $25 Yield = 25/475 = 5.25% in 202 days or 9.5% annualized Prob = 97% Expectation = .97(25) - .01(475) - .02(237) = 24.25 - 4.75 - 4.74 = 14.75
CVS: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatsp...hes-47-on-these-key-drivers/?partner=yahootix http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=CVS+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CVS+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=cvs http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=CVS&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=CVS&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: Jan '13 38/35 bull put spread for $18 Yield = 18/282 = 6.38% in 200 days or 11.6% annualized Prob = 96% Expectation = .96(18) - .01(282) - .03(141) = 17.3 - 2.8 - 4.2 = 10.3
Yet another example of a stock trading at it's all time high. I'll assume you are a "trend follower". While I am also one who selects strikes OTM, and yours are certainly deep OTM, I'm not sure that alone is criteria enough for labeling the trades as "conservative". Waiting for a pull back to tech support, along with a shorter expiration date, with time decay working for you sooner, would make your trades more conservative, while earning a higher annualized % return. Just my 2 cents. No need to respond, as I know you are not into discussions.
CVS: After looking further into CVS I am considering buying the stock with the intent of selling covered calls. Current ATM CC would yield about 12% annualized plus a 1.4% dividend. Of course I would not actually buy the stock but would instead sell the naked put with the intent of being put. .............Short Put premiums and Calcs............. EP = effective price of stock if put Prob = prob of Price < strike = prob of being put Yield of the short put = premium/(margin - premium) <cash account> annualized Expiration:Jan '13 (200 days): with CVS at 47.81 sell naked put at indicated strike: Strike.......Premium........Yield..........EP.........Prob 35...............55.............2.9%......34.45........2% 37...............68.............3.3%......36.32........3% 39...............89.............4.2%......38.11........9% 40.............107.............4.9%......38.93........12% 42.............132.............5.7%......40.68........22% 44.............175.............7.2%......42.25........27% 46.............235.............9.8%......43.65........46% 48.............310...........12.6%......44.90........60% 50.............415...........16.5%......45.85........73% http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CVS+Basic+Chart All things considered I am inclined to sell the $40 put with the knowledge that CVS may well proceed to higher levels leaving my attempt to be put behind... as well as the usual danger of CVS proceeding to lower levels and leaving me holding the bag.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/carmakers-report-strong-june-sales-161053206.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=F+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=F+Basic+Chart&t=5d http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=F&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=F&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Maybe F has some upside coming e.g. with F at 9.60 Buy Sept $10 call for $35 Price .........P/L.......% 9.00........(35)......(100%) 10.00......(35)......(100%) 10.35........0..........0% 10.50........15.......43% 11.00........65......185% 11.50.......115......328% 12.00.......165......471% (my daily driver... a gas guzzling V8)
XLF: http://www.forbes.com/sites/etfchan...d-experiences-big-outflow-4/?partner=yahootix http://www.forbes.com/sites/halahto...rything-top-regulator-says/?partner=yahoofeed http://www.marketwatch.com/story/financials-drag-sp-down-led-by-jp-morgan-2012-07-05?siteid=yhoof2 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=XLF&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Jan '13 20/23 bear call spread for $17 Yield = 17/283 = 6% in 196 days or 11.2% annualized Prob = 96% Expectation = .96(17) - .01(283) - .03(141) = 16.32 - 2.83 - 4.23 = 9.26 note how this posting is completely opposite in outlook to the Ford post above. F and XLF have diverged: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&s=F&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=XLF&ql=1
DLPH: http://seekingalpha.com/article/702...-sell-or-short-delphi-automotive?source=yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=DLPH+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=&s=dlph&ql=1 Trade: Feb 30/32.50 bear call spread for $20 net credit Yield = 20/230 = 8.7% in 222 days or 14.3% annualized Prob & Exp UNK: Has not been traded long enough to get probability estimates. Again at odds with the F trade above... could be used as a portfolio diversification trade.