SGG: http://www.businessweek.com/news/20...rt-profits-beat-domestic-sales-on-crop-delays http://www.brecorder.com/component/...-sees-sugar-exports-rise-25pc-in-2012-13.html http://www.bworldonline.com/content...arginal-increase-in-sugar-production&id=53328 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-06-12/sugar-mill-expecting-bigger-crush/4065726 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGG&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=c&c= August 70/75 and 70/80 Bull Call Spreads and 75/70 bull put spread ....................................P/L................................... SGG...........70/75 .........70/80.............75/70 65...............(440)..........(615).............(415) 70...............(440)..........(615).............(415) 75.................60.............(114)...............85 80.................60..............385.................85 85.................60..............385.................85 It's been interesting but I'm not doing any SGG trades this year... maybe next year.
BDX: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/becton-beats-rev-est-tweaks-181530011.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BDX+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=bdx http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=BDX&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BDX&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Dec 60/55 bull put spread for $37 Yield = 37/463 = .0799 = 8% in 191 days or 15.3% annualized Prob = 93% Expectation = .93(37) - .02(463) - .05(231) = 34.4 - 9.3- 11.6 = 13.5
Today is the last day to hedge my portfolio before the weekend elections in Europe: http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-06-14/commentary/32226281_1_tsipras-euro-crisis-bailout-terms http://www.cnn.com/2012/06/14/world/weekend-world-elections/index.html The most direct hedge is to buy puts against each long position but that is complex and expensive. Another way to create a hedge is to go long an inverse ETF like SH: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=sh&ql=1 I prefer to 'go long' by buying short term, in the money calls on SH rather then buying puts on each position or buying SH stock straight out. e.g. buying ATM AUG SH calls (at 1.60) and then computing an approximate value of the S&P (SPY) corresponding to the SH value: With SPY at 133.47 and SH at 37.46 buy the AUG 37 SH call: At Aug expiration SPY...............SPY%.........SH.........SH Calls P/L......SH Calls P/L% 142.23.........6.0%..........35...............(160).............(100%) 124.40........(6.7%).........40................140..................88% 106.60........(20%)..........45................640................400% ...88.80.......(33%)..........50..............1140................700% So if I buy 1 SH call and SPY drops from 133.47 to 124.40 (6.7%) I would expect the SH call to rise from $160 to $300 and provide a $140 profit or 88%, providing a 13 times leverage in the hedge. Thus a $100k portfolio would require 100K/13 = $7700 to hedge buying the AUG SH calls. Not Cheap... I can sell them immediately after the elections to reduce this cost considerably. If I get 60% back on Monday my hedge will have cost me .4(7700) = 3080 or 3.1%. Another cheap-out is to substitute a spread for the straight calls which could save another 10% or so but raise complexity. Not cheap... but if the market drops like a stone I'll be happy as a pig in sh*t.
CORN: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ethanol-loses-favor-drags-corn-with-it-2012-06-15 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=CORN+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=CORN&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 Trade: 40/45 November bear call spread for $50 Yield = 50/450 = 11.1% in 153 days or 26.5% annualized Prob = 75% Expectation = .75(50) - .10(450) - .15(225) = 37.5 - 45 - 33.75 = -41.2 Bad trade statistically. Expectation is at breakeven with a yield of $97
http://www.forbes.com/sites/abrambr...a-moment-to-cheer-pro-bailout-partys-victory/ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/17/greek-election-results-new-democracy-wins_n_1603971.html http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...far-from-over/2012/06/17/gJQA6OVnjV_blog.html http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/06/17/us-markets-global-idUSBRE8520GN20120617
Betting that European stocks get at least a temporary reprieve: VGK: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=VGK+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=VGK&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=VGK&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1 With VGK at 41.51 Sept 41/45 bull call spread for a debit of $215: VGK....................P/L 35......................(215) 40......................(215) 45.......................185 50.......................185
ORCL: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/19/t...-analysts-estimates.html?partner=yahoofinance http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ORCL+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=orcl http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=ORCL&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ORCL&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Jan '13 17.50/15 bull put spread for $15 Yield = 15/235 = 6.4% in 213 days or 10.9% annualized Prob = 97% Expectation = .97(15) - .01(235) - .02(117) = 14.55 - 2.35 - 2.34 = 9.86
UNH: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-group-unh-050002180.html http://www.foxbusiness.com/industri...health-lifts-dividend-announces-buyback-plan/ http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealthcare-voluntarily-extends-important-health-110000018.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividen...way-from-unitedhealth-group/?partner=yahootix http://www.thestreet.com/story/1158...on-reiterated-unh.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=UNH+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=unh http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UNH&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UNH&t=1y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Sept 45/40 bull put spread for $20 Yield = 20/480 = 4.2% in 92 days or 16.5% annualized Prob = 95% Expectation = .95(20) - .01(480) - .04(240) = 19 - 4.8 - 9.6 = 4.6
ACI: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/arch-coal-laying-off-750-214108027.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=ACI+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=ACI http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=ACI&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Jan '13 10/12.5 bear call spread for $15 Yield = 15/235 = 6.38% in 210 days or 11.1% annualized Prob = 86% Expectation = .86(15) - .06(235) - .08(117) = 12.9 - 14.1 - 9.4 = -10.6 Trade2: Jan '14 10/12.5 bear call spread for $36 Yield = 36/164 = 21.9% in 574 days or 13.9% annualized Prob = 83% Expectation = .83(36) - .125(164) - .045(82) = 29.9 - 20.5 - 3.7 = 5.7 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bTdDTTzX8B0&feature=related http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZEHJzIJ9hs http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=endscreen&v=BqWfyAfaFZI&NR=1
MRK: http://seekingalpha.com/article/668331-merck-buy-now-and-ride-4-higher-in-2013?source=yahoo Trade: MRK @ 40.13 Jan '13 33/30 bull put spread for $22 Yield = 22/278 = 7.9% in 210 days or 13.8% annualized Prob = 96% Expectation = .96(22) - .01(278) - .03(139) = 21 - 2.8 - 4.2 = 14