Conservative Options Trades

Discussion in 'Journals' started by danshirley, Aug 21, 2011.

  1. TLT Ctd:
    Here is the table including the 145/150 call spread which is a Sept spread. I also threw in a butterfly for comparison sake:

    Strikes.........119................119/114.........125/130...........109/119/129............145/150
    At Risk.........113.................... 77................316.....................561....................487
    Price.........Long Put.........Put Spread....Call Spread.............Butterfly.....Spt Call Sprd
    110..............779....................423...............184.....................(473)...................13
    115..............290....................332...............184.......................25......................13
    120..............(113)..................(77)..............184......................326.....................13
    125..............(113)..................(77)..............184......................(182)...................13
    126..............(113)..................(77)................69......................(575)...................13
    130..............(113)..................(77)..............(316)....................(575)...................13
    135..............(113)..................(77)..............(316)....................(575)...................13
     
    #131     May 31, 2012
  2. dannyz

    dannyz

    hey dan i see you know alot about options trading. i made money off calls on vch. now i just reinvested some money into face book july 25 puts. at 1.10 . i am looking to make money yearly doing this do you have advice you can give me?
     
    #132     May 31, 2012
  3. #134     Jun 1, 2012
  4. dannyz

    dannyz

    i bought the puts for 1.10 and sold them at 1.70 i made 200$ thanks though!!!!
     
    #135     Jun 1, 2012
  5. MON:
    (I believe I posted about MON in April also. It is a member of my recession Resistant list)

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/stevesc...ys-earnings-should-be-up-25/?partner=yahootix

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/zacks/2...oks-like-fertile-investment/?partner=yahootix

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/monsanto-ups-guidance-130028361.html

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MON+Key+Statistics

    http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=mon

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MON&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MON&t=5d&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=^GSPC

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=MON&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

    Trade:
    50/47.50 bull put spread for $17
    Yield = 17/233 = 7.3% in 214 days or 12.4% annualized
    Prob = 92%
    Expectation = .92(17) - .05(233) - .03(116) = 15.6 - 11.6 - 3.5 = 0.5

    (many alternate trades available... e.g. a short put leading to a covered call... an ATM covered call yields about 17% annualized)
     
    #138     Jun 3, 2012
  6. SGG:

    Brazil's sugar harvest is just about in but there are a lot of complex issues weighing on sugar prices:

    SUGAR

    Forty Year Trading Range: 2.30 cents to 66.00 cents per lb.

    Trades on the ICE from 2:30 a.m. to 1:00 p.m. CDT

    Weakness in the Brazilian real is beginning to weigh heavily on Sugar prices. Jonathan Kingsman, chairman of Swiss based Kingsman SA expects global Sugar prices to continue moving lower over the coming months if weakness in the real continues. We must monitor this situation closely.

    An increasing amount of Sugar is being used to refine ethanol and used as a sweetener to boot. Competing more and more with corn; it’s come to a point where weather in the growing areas of Brazil and India could become less important and Sugar may trade in step with grains. Is Sugar a grain in disguise? This sounds awfully strange to me, but things do change and traders have no choice but to change with them.

    China is expecting a 2 million tonne shortfall in domestic Sugar production this season. Australian Sugar industry executives expect Chinese import demand and regional supply tightness to hold Sugar prices at a premium to benchmark global prices. This technically oversold market could use a correction to the upside. I am not saying it’s going to happen, but it certainly could.


    http://www.insidefutures.com/article/664769/The Soft Spot(67).html

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/546...sumers-bad-news-for-shareholders?source=yahoo

    I expected sugar to flatten out about now based on its 5 year graph and supply issues.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGG&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=c&c=

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=SGG&t=3m&l=off&z=l&q=c&c=

    A brave trade would be a Aug 70/80 bull call spread on SGG for a $500 debit:
    SGG.................P/L
    65..................(500)
    70..................(500)
    75.....................0
    80...................500
    85...................500

    I am sorely tempted but I need just one more indication of a bottom here.
    The time is right but the graph is not. Where will SGG open tomorrow??
     
    #139     Jun 3, 2012
  7. Catch a falling knife??
    cheers
    john
     
    #140     Jun 4, 2012