LOW: Update http://news.investors.com/article/6...at-but-guides-sales-low.htm?ven=yahoocp,yahoo http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LOW&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=LOW&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Oct Iron Condor 17/15/32/34 for $14 Yield =7.5% in 153 days or 17.9% annualized Prob = 86% (2 down, 14 up)
HPQ: http://news.investors.com/article/6...ws-confirms-big-layoffs.htm?ven=yahoocp,yahoo http://www.marketwatch.com/story/h-p-stock-up-on-results-cutting-27k-jobs-2012-05-23?dist=afterbell http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=HPQ+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=HPQ&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= HP at 21.08 August Bull Put Spreads: .................Trade 1..................Trade 2 Sell..........AUG 15 put...........AUG 17 Put Buy..........Aug 12 put............AUG 14 Put P/L.................9.00................23.00 Yield...............3.1%................8.3% Annualized......13%.................35% Prob...............95%.................85%
BCO: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/brinks-outpaces-1q-estimates-cites-165910158.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=BCO+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=bco http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BCO&t=5d&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=BCO&t=2y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Dec 20/17.5 bull put spread for $35 Prob = 70% Expectation = .7(35) - .18(215) - .12(107) = 24.5 - 38.7 - 12.8 = -27
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-may-be-headed-toward-fiscal-cliff-2012-05-25?pagenumber=1 http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX I maintan a list of stocks that are 'recession resistant'. The market has been running up, and like the market itself I have ventured beyond the conservative...but now I think it is time to return to my conservative roots. These are my rr, conservative stocks (I have left out some that are prohibitively overbought like MCD and WMT) : http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&s=ABT&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=&ql=1&c=^GSPC http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=AWR&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=bax&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=bcr&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=bdx&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=cl&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=cwt&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=dba&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=gis&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=mon&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=njr&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=nly&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=nwn&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=rah&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=so&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=teva&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=tlt&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=ugi&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=wgl&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=xel&ql=1 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=^GSPC&s=xom&ql=1
I maintan a list of stocks that are 'recession resistant'. The market has been running up, and like the market itself I have ventured beyond the conservative...but now I think it is time to return to my conservative roots. These are my rr, conservative stocks (I have left out some that are prohibitively overbought like MCD and WM ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I see that your list is highly corralated to the SPX. Is this a concern for you? cheers john ps I remember Camden as a thriving city with RCA, Cambell soups, a robust shipbuilding industry, and the center of a large manufacturing system Corruption and urban decay contributed to its downfall like other once great cities . Without honest visionary leadership things will not change cheers again john
WHR: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/whirlpool-corporation-whr-zacks-rank-050027008.html http://www.forbes.com/sites/dividen...-directors-recent-buy-price/?partner=yahootix http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowa...ng-reiterates-year-eps-view/?mod=yahoobarrons http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=WHR+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=whr http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WHR&t=5y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Sept 40/35 bull put spread for $30 Yield = 30/470 = 6.4% in 116 days or 20% annualized Prob = 94% Expectation = .94(30) - .02(470) -.04(235) =28.2 - 9.4 - 9.4 = 9.4
John: Some would argue that Camden was shut down by the US Navy. New York Ship, which built its ships in Camden simply lost out on too many contracts and shut its doors (or seaways) in 1967: http://destroyerhistory.org/destroyers/newyorkship/ That was the beginning of the end of Camden NJ. I was surprised to learn that the USS Kitty Hawk was built, by New York Ship, not in New York, or in North Carolina... but in Camden NJ: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Kitty_Hawk_(CV-63)
RGR: http://news.investors.com/article/6...s-taking-new-gun-orders.htm?ven=yahoocp,yahoo http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=rgr http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RGR+Key+Statistics http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=RGR&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Oct 25/22.5 bull put spread for $20 Yield = 20/230 = 8.69% in 142 days or 22.3% annualized Prob = 89% Expectation = .89(20) - .06(230) - .05(125) = 17.8 - 13.8 - 6.25 = -2.25 i.e. zero.... options priced according to probabilities.
TLT: Quote: The TLT Treasury exchange-traded fund is hitting record highs, but its option activity is led by put buying today. The iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund is up 2 percent to $125.48, off an all-time high of $125.75 reached after it gapped higher this morning. The TLT, which was down at $96 a year ago, has been on a steep uptrend since hitting the $110 level in March. The July 119 puts that top the action, indicating that someone believes that the stock will revert to its mean price. More than 10,000 of those puts have traded against open interest of 1,316, according to optionMONSTER's Depth Charge system. The puts were bought in institution-size blocks for increasingly high prices, with a print of 3,700 going for $1.17 and 1,266 for $1.19. The put buying is not tied to any trading in the underlying shares identified by our systems. But this fund is correlated with many instruments, including futures, so the puts could be a hedge or a relative value play in a number of ways. The inverse correlation of the TLT with the S&P 500 is usually quite high, running near -1, but it currently sits at -0.5. .................................................................................Option Monster http://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-etfs-hit-time-highs-135701135.html http://blogs.barrons.com/incomeinve...cludes-pratfall-at-1-620/?mod=BOL_hpp_blog_ii http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TLT&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= With TLT at 126.14 Compare: (closing Prices) Long 119 put, 119/114 Bear Put Spread and 125/130 Bear Call Spread: Strikes.........119................119/114.........125/130 At Risk.........113.................... 77................316 Price.........Long Put..........Put Spread.....Call Spread 110..............779....................423...............184 115..............290....................332...............184 120..............(113)..................(77)..............184 125..............(113)..................(77)..............184 126..............(113)..................(77)................69 130..............(113)..................(77)..............(316) 135..............(113)..................(77)..............(316)
TLT: see above 145/150 bear call spread for $13 prob = 96% Expectation = .96(13) - .02(487) - .02(243) = 12.48 - 9.74 - 4.86 = -2 = 0 I would operate some where between the 125/130 bear call spread and the 145/150.