From my post on 05-21-08 01:13 PM: âThis is one of those days (oil hitting 133, gold at 930, DOW down 450 pts in 2 days) that I could look back on, several months from now, and think, "Wow, my account was at an all time high, why didn't I liquidate everything and just sit in cash and wait for a day like today when everything is cheap?" I've had that thought before. Like the time my account went from 165k to 135k, and the time it dropped from 193k to 164K. I still do not have a real good answer to that question, but I know i won't liquidate my account.â ***** That was a good question back then. Why the hell didnât I do it? My liquidation value today dipped down to 168K. What kind of an idiot lets his portfolio drop this much? So here are the idiotâs answers: 1. Since I did not liquidate on May 21, I was kind of stuck managing this portfolio. 2. When the stuff hit the fan, several weeks ago, my choices were to sell off losers and convert paper losses into real losses. Had I done that, what would my liquidation value be today instead of 168K. Answer: probably around 172-178K, maybe. This assumes I would have kept my âlowâ risk positions, and just sold off my high risk positions. 3. The idiot still believes that this weakness in energy and commodities is a temporary correction, and not the beginning of a total collapse of the sectors. If the idiot did not have that confidence to hold, his stance would be beyond idiotic, right into lunacy. 4. All independent analysts I read point to a declining general market, probably world-wide, and possibly a âgenerationalâ disaster of epic proportions. ******* So if I had sold off my losers as they occurred, I donât believe I would have been very much better off then right now. I still donât know where the bottom is. I still have the possibility that the correction will end and level out, and if this happens I will be in a position to minimize my losses to a much less degree. This is only early August and I have nothing expiring before October, so I am under little time pressure. Most analysts think the correction in oil and precious metals will be over by end of august. I donât really when I will actually surrender, but I probably am getting very close to start some scaling back, if I donât see a leveling out soon. ************ by Frank Holmes, CEO, U.S. Global Investors | August 4, 2008 Print - Quote: Are we at the end of the commodity bull market or does this battered sector offer an attractive buying opportunity? Thatâs the question on the minds of everyone trying to navigate one of the most complex and volatile markets weâve seen in years. The continuing economic slowdown (particularly at home and in other G-7 countries), combined with more than a year of bleak news from the financial sector, has left investors dazed and desperate. The liquidity crisis has forced leveraged investors and companies to unload assets across the board to comply with new accounting rules like FAS 157 and FAS 140, and this has created a domino effect as investors panic. An estimated $15 billion was pulled out of U.S. stock funds in July, about four times more than in June. For the first seven months of 2008, those outflows totaled $52.4 billion, an all-time high. July was also a very tough month for commodities and commodity stocks. The S&P Natural Resources Index fell off 15 percent, the worst monthly sell-off in the sector since August 1998, when the Russian currency crisis triggered the implosion of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management. Prices for the underlying commodities also suffered in July, with the Jefferies/CRB Index down 10.1 percent. This was just short of the worst monthly performance for this index since 1970. The fundamentals for gold have not changed, and with negative real interest rates in the U.S., this is a good time to maintain exposure to gold investments. As you can clearly see from the chart below, July and August generally mark a low time for gold before prices climb with the arrival of the fall buying season, which is another reason to consider gold now. The world is different from a decade ago. Back then, the world was experiencing a global currency crisis that started in Asia in 1997 and peaked in 1998 with Russia defaulting on its sovereign debt. This was the final blow that doomed Long-Term Capital Management. China and other emerging economies have massive U.S. dollar surpluses, and these countries are committed to infrastructure spending. This week Chinaâs government announced that it will focus more on sustainable growth than worry about inflation. This is significant. Last monthâs tumble for resources can be traced back to the latest troubles in the financial sector that started more than a year ago with the subprime mortgage collapse and were accelerated by the new accounting rules in late 2007. The intermarket relationship of assets get bundled together with a liquidity event, and the icing on the cake was the March 2008 collapse of the auction-rate securities market, which basically froze $300 billion in retail investor cash. This issue has yet to be resolved, and lawsuits are flying everywhere. The market is now seeking liquidity in response to the recent moves by Merrill Lynch and others to sell mortgage-related assets at huge losses and the persistent rumors that more Bear Stearns-like failures are yet to come. The regulatory actions in July to stop shorting of 19 financial stocks, including Merrill Lynch, was well-timed. These stocks have rallied 50 percent off their lows, and more importantly for Merrill, it was able to refinance its losses. Had the SEC not stepped in, packs of illegal short-sellers could have crushed Merrillâs stock, just as they did Bear Stearns. While energy and resources felt the impact of Julyâs turmoil, itâs important to keep in mind that this performance did not reflect the sectorâs solid fundamentals. Historically, oil dips in July before rallying from August through October, as illustrated in the seasonal chart below. " end quote ******** This is a decent summary of the kind of stuff I think is true.
You are too "locked in" on this strategy. There are times when this is a fairly good strategy for those that believe in it. When times change, so must your strategy. But, you think way too many months into the future and the dynamics of the economy/market can harm/destroy you. Sometimes, CAPITAL PRESERVATION is PARAMOUNT.
its a good strategy, but its a directional long market strategy. That is the strength and weakness. When market goes up and up, you tend to make a lot of money but when market comes down a lot, u lose it back. An excellent strategy will work in up or down markets, reason being that it has gone through the proper market stress test and works. Until this happens, I suggest you keep yr positions small or sit tight until the market goes bull again.
What an excellent opinion of this strategy. I agree with every word of your entire post. This is the third time that I have been in the middle of an "unexpectedly" brutal crash in my portfolio. I cannot deny that I've made management mistakes, since the proof is right in front of your eyes. I really intend to review my trading activities since my May 21 acknowledgement. I'm sure that I can improve my methodology by doing so. I mentioned in a post that other accounts I manage are doing much better at this juncture than my own. It is because I was more cautious. So my big challange is to find a way to modify my greed (that is absolutely what I feel when I percieve the market to be cheap), and to limit my spread purchases to a more modest % of my portfolio and spread out over more time, and timed better to the overall market. While a high percentage of my spreads are now at high risk, less than 10% of the spreads in my other accounts are. Now it is exactly because my spreads are "a directional long market strategy" that I have several months of time left for this temporary oversold condition (I think many analysts agree here) in commodities to correct. I don't really need a correction so much as just finding a bottom to this correction, and I think we are close. Long term market forces are working in my favor, I believe. I absolutely expect a successful close to this year, and consider this a serious and still worsening (and hopefully not to be repeated) condition, but a very temporary anomaly. So your advice to take smaller positions, and sit tight (until conditions are very friendly) is exactly right and what I hope to do better. In summary, my methodology is evolving, but what is a better, more forgiving strategy for a non-trader?
glad you like it. i suggest you take a break, have a small and low risk positions until the market turns bullish again. the deep-in-the-money-calls strategy is suitable for small market drops but not steep and sudden market drops. unless you have some really good sources with a long track record of being correct, i suggest you avoid those opinions about market directions. Form your own opinion based on technical analysis and common sense.
Following is an old post on the status of my portfolio from a different thread, that I happened to run across. Just for kicks look at a chart of the S&P 500 from March 2007. I think there is a remarkable similarity between my portfolio back then(as describe in the old post) and todayâs situation. It worked out fine back then and I expect it will work out fine this time too. Iâve still done no trades, as I expect this commodities correction to stabilize or partially recover by the end of August. Luckily I have the time to wait it out, and the situation was similar back in Mar 07, according to my post. I will note that a sudden drop like this is very much more dangerous and costly if it happens a month or two closer to expiration dates. Then there is no time for market forces to adjust to your expectations, and you have no real choice but to sell off losers early and minimize the damage. Begin Quote> 03-05-07 05:01 PM This post is not seeking further dialog, but simply a report on how well a DITM vertical bull call spread portfolio fared after the past week. This analysis was figured about midday today, mar 5. This portfolio has 299 spreads in fifty different stocks and ETFs. 208 spreads are still DTM - 69.6% 65 spreads are still all ITM - 21.7% 26 spreads are now ATM - 8.7% note: DITM is loosely short calls are 10% deep or at least 1 full spread level deep. (long calls obviously DITM) ITM is short calls are still ITM. (long calls DITM) ATM is long call is now ITM, short call is OTM note: not all of the spreads were DITM on Monday Feb 26. I don't have stats, but at least 10% of the spreads were ITM at that point. I also had 7 spreads that were ATM at that point. 95% of these spreads expire in June or later. How will it look next week? Don't know. End quote> ****** Nicktan â I would agree with you on several points from your last post. I do use my own opinion on everything I do, right or wrong. I donât follow anyoneâs advice blindly, including yours. The sources of information I use are 100% free and available to everyone. I listen to them only because they have proven to be more right than wrong over several years, and their opinions make sense to me, and they are more knowledgeable about their subjects than I could ever be. How else are we to decide what to invest in? âCommon senseâ only comes in to play as we decide what information to believe and what to discard.
Aug 18 Activity: Finally did some trades today, and was forced to take some losses. Tough market! SOLD: 5 SII OCT 60/65 @ 3.45 NET LOSS 289 BUY: 4 ECA APR 50/55 @ 3.6 EXPECTED GROSS PROFIT 560 SOLD: 8 VIP OCT 20/22.5 @ 1.65 NET LOSS 147 SOLD: 5 X OCT 135/140 @ 2.05 NET LOSS 939.4 SOLD: 4 ECA OCT 70/75 @ 1.3 NET LOSS 1091.00 This was bought a week or so ago but did not post it till now: BUY 3 XTO FEB 30/35 @ 3.7 Stock at 43.2, expected gross profit 360. No other trades have occured.
This is a tough market all right for directional longs. There seems to be a see-saw pattern of late so it's difficult to be purely directional of one side. As I see it, we are still in the denial stage of the market. Denial that the worst is coming and believing the worst is over and things will improve with time. In fact, most of the sectors in the US economy is suffering at this moment so even though I am a long bull I have to face reality of the moment.
8/19/08 Activities: SOLD: 5 FWLT JAN 50/52.5 @ .85 NET LOSS 614 SOLD: 5 MDR NOV 40/45 @ .87 NET LOSS 1454 (the severity of this particular loss was unique to this stockâs price action. Kind of unforeseeable.) BUY 200 SLV (long) @ 13.08 ***** 8/20/08 Activities: SOLD: 6 SU SEPT 35/37.5 @ 2.45 NET PROFIT ????????? BUY: 4 SLB FEB 70/75 @3.95 Stock at 94.0 comm5.6 expected gross profit 420 BUY: 8 PAAS APR 17.5/20 @ 1.7 Stock at 25.0 cmm 11.2 expected gross profit 640 **** 8/21/08 Activities: SOLD: 6 TIE JAN 10/12.5 @1.25 (hit a sell limit, probably a bad call from me, should have held it.) NET LOSS 339.3 SOLD: 4 APA OCT 110/115 @ 2.8 NET LOSS 411 SOLD: 3 GG OCT 30/35 @ 3.0 NET LOSS 244.1 SOLD: 5 MTW DEC 17.5/22.5 @ 3.45 NET LOSS 264 SOLD: 4 AEM NOV 50/55 @ 2.95 (This position was first rolled from 50/55 to 45/55 and now was rolled to 45/50. History = +2349, COST of 45/50 spreads = 4.85, just barely profitable.) SOLD: 4 DBA JAN 25/30 @4.55 NET GAIN 281.65 (early sale just for morale purposes) So my feeling is that this is the beginning of recovery from the commodity âcorrectionâ. I may be wrong but today, anyway, I enjoying the hell out of it. Sold off more risky positions today, to take advantage of the strength today. My whole portfolio is much stronger today. I have taken advantage of the commodity weakness in all of my accounts and they are all looking pretty good if this rebound holds. Iâm out of town and unable to do any overall portfolio analysis until the weekend or early next week. Also I have raised some cash and am not so stretched. My view of the market is focused on my holdings. Like Nicktan, I also believe the âmarketâ (the overall market) is in for a decline for the rest of this year, but âmyâ market is what I trade to, and I hold a different view for certain sectors. If half of this dayâs gains hold through the weekend, it will be encouraging to me. That is my reality. If I'm right, then the worst losses are past me, and I will be satisfied that they are at an acceptible level considering the severity of the correction. If I'm wrong, I'll deal with that too.
Unless you possess telescopic eyes, I can't foresee the market is bearish to the rest of the year. What I commented is on what had happened in the past not the future. But in saying this, there are some things in the present or the past which has such magnitute and force that will influence the future.