<i>"This isn't a bubble... commodities have been in a bull market since 1999 and will be in one for at least another decade."</i> I agree... on a long-term basis. But how do you explain a physical commodity being priced 2x front-month futures over spot price? At any moment in time, that kind of insane paper shortage is a bubble. Long-term, bull market. Short-term at times, huge frothy bubbles
The spot you are quoting was for a different type of wheat than the futures. The 3 futures exchanges trade 3 different types of wheat. MGEX - hard red spring, KC - hard red winter and CBOT - soft red winter. When MGEX wheat was over $24.00 CBOT wheat didn't even get to $14.00.