I've been spending a lot of time comparing 1989-1994 regional fractals to what's going on now in housing. My work suggests we're another year or two away from a bottom. The most beleaguered markets could still break an additional 20%-other places are as cheap as they're going to get. The rub is at best prices will flat line for years. Like everything else the world will survive asset depreciation. Our economic problems are far deeper and more philosophical than a mere return to mean in property or equity values.......
home prices will fall until mortgage is cheaper than rent. now if they can't afford rent they can't afford the mortgage.
Checked some local prices around here... Assuming a buyer can come up with $120K for a down payment, he's still looking at about $2900/mo, PIT.... vs about $1700/mo rents... RE likely has further to fall.
Everything is obviously relative. PBR was right some places have a lot lower to go and some have bottomed but won't likely see any meaningful appreciation for a while. It will be interesting whatever it is.
It's NOT housing! That's such utter bullshit. It's JOBS. JOBS! If people are working and feel secure, they spend money, even with high mortgage and interest rates! And the employment situation is going to get far, far worse. There's the proper answer.
Gnome.... Nothing will be "right" or "fair" until the RE bubble excesses have been wrung out. Before he died, Sir John Templeton said, "... housing prices will trough at 10% of their peak prices..." Maybe he's right.... happened in Japan. (Can you imagine? That $800,000 McMansion you bought going for only $80K?.... Ouch!) ................................................................................... Have always admired Templeton.... .................................................................................. Mobius talked $45 oil....when it was very expensive.... ................................................................................... What would be interesting is for the US Government to have to impose a 10% consumption tax....just to get any significant level of revenue.... Looks like tax revenue is going to 'nil under the current system.... ......................................................................................... Also ....how about basic math.... $2-$4 Trillion replaces > $30 Trillion ? ........................................................................................ Also how many Americans have .... Choice 1) $40,000 cash ....$240,000 House $30,000 cash....vehicle $25,000 cash....college.... How about .... Choice 2) $16,000 cash....$80,000 House.... $10,000 cash....vehicle Free Internet Education ................................................................ What percentage can afford even the second choice ? .................................................................................................
I think you're right. Instead of "handing out benefits in exchange for votes", and "taxing the CRAP out of anyone who makes good money and has wealth"... the Gummint is missing the boat. (Duh!) What they NEED to do is establish the widest based, lowest tax rate they can rationalize... If they were to do that, foreign companies would perceive the USA as safe, business-friendly and tax-friendly... and would FLOOD the USA with their facilities to make things and employ Americans.
The ONLY thing that matters. Jobs. p.s. - Anyone here who actually believes Obama has caused the problems, in 10 days, that we're experiencing now, rather than blaming the incompetence beyond incompetent 'Dumbya,' who just left us a giant pile of SHIT after 8 years in office, needs their head examined by a psychiatrist - I'm not joking. You are clearly a danger to yourself and to others, and should be committed to a mental institution and sedated.