Nice $$$ on Non-Farm Payroll. I have no idea what the numbers were but on my screens bonds are down (good to be short) and index futures ticking up nicely. Gotta love risk free cash holding long over a long weekend!!! I think thats why they call it a long weekend, you should hold long on those!!!!!!!
Who cares when they gave away +5 ES points for free today???? I love free money. Next week is next week.
The 180000 new jobs is good as the powers that be can spin this into the "consumer is still strong" and pulling the American economy. The rise in cost of wages is not good as this is inflationary and the street is looking for rate cuts but this signals rate hikes. All that is left is to see is what kind of spin they weave and how gullible the retail investor is. Keep in mind the big money wants the retail money in their coffers. All reports are positively spun as well as all negative news is minimized. Has a familiar ring to it imho,the drivers are different but the fleecing will be the same....can you say dotcom? Cheers Lloyd
The one thing that could ruin the party is financials. Take a look at $XBD or $BKX (broker/dealer and bank index), they are not performing as well as the rest of the market. Market being led by mainly commodities and energy stocks. Also watch China it has had a very good run and some pullback may come soon and they are not known for little pullbacks over there I have been bearish for a while and not doing that well, still, I think too many people got in long to "play" the employment data, let's see if they will keep holding next week or bail out. Uptrend still intact unless we go under say 1410-1430 Congrats longs anyway.
We're in this push-me, pull-me economic zone where each piece of news can be either good or bad depending on the interpretation of the minute. It wouldn't shock me to see a new view on this data next week because it keeps the Fed away from rate cuts.... Ron
And earlier you say: So which is it? You sold for +5 -OR- you are holding for an extended "risk-free" time period?
Don't fight the fed! They want to crush the dollar (to boost exports, and curb our trade imbalance) and could care less about inflation. Solution: Hold stocks of inflationary assets until the tape no longer cooperates. Cash is trash. Anyone who doesn't think that the fed wouldn't cut rates in a heart beat, even with raging inflation, to bail out the equity markets, is NAIVE!!! The federal reserve is a division of Goldman Sachs, and Ben Bernanke is their errand boy. Hey, there's Ben!
I'm interested to see how "the market" views this data next week. My general impression is that it has typically been hoping for rate cuts, and has responded favorably to data points that provide support for rate cuts, and negatively to data points that make rate cuts less probable.