Confirmation vs. S/R

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by RocknRide, Oct 28, 2010.

  1. exactly, but without a picture or three, what you said isn't going to mean anything to anyone unfortunately :). You're spot on.
     
    #11     Nov 7, 2010
  2. this conversation cannot be summarized or satisfied with a picture or three... or twenty, or one hundred

    The framework is this: random S/R alone does not offer any edge. It needs to be part of something bigger than that.

    Random example would be market profile levels. Say price drops to some important mp zone, and holds for a moment. When price sits there, taking the reversal long from price dropping is hopefully a pullback. But it's just a statistical guess until price actually bounces.

    Now if price breaks thru and closes on the bottom side of prior mp support, it is now presumed resistance. Trading near or at the bottom side of broken S/R is likewise a statistical guess.

    So the true answer is not in how to tell if something is confirmed or guesswork at S/R levels on its face: the confirmation comes from repeated similar actions in similar situations = sequences where the S/R level is merely one part of that equation
     
    #12     Nov 7, 2010
  3. KISS. I don't believe in the concept of "confirmation"...
     
    #13     Nov 7, 2010
  4. BSAM

    BSAM

    Good advice. In fact, best advice so far on this thread. The rest is pretty much typical ET mumbo jumbo.
     
    #14     Nov 7, 2010
  5. S/R zones are places to target trade entries at based on other reasons than the fact that S/R assumed conditions exist at those zones.

    Said plainly, use them for potential trade entries... not reasons to enter a trade

    How's that for concise?
     
    #15     Nov 7, 2010
  6. we were doing good up until here. Where's your stop? What's the basis for your entry. If you can't summarize it with 100 pictures it doesn't sound like there's going to be a repeatable edge? Like the house, it must be done over and over
     
    #16     Nov 7, 2010
  7. the example I gave tried to explain why the concept of what to do with or at S/R on its face is a dead-end path

    S/R is something to use for trade entry decisions... not what to do if S/R levels are hit

    If your overall method suggests long, then buying dips to key S or buying breaks of key R levels are on the screen. If your overall method suggest short, then selling resistance to key R or selling breaks of key S levels are on the screen.

    Trying to figure out which way to trade based on an S/R zone and no other information is not going to work
     
    #17     Nov 7, 2010
  8. BSAM

    BSAM

    LOL...Guru "speech" is usually difficult to interpret.

    Markets do the same thing over and over and over.
     
    #18     Nov 7, 2010
  9. BSAM

    BSAM

    So do tell, Austin...if you are watching, say SPY, and support is met, what, exactly would you do? Try to be really clear.
     
    #19     Nov 7, 2010
  10. What if you wait till support is broken and becomes new resistance. Then enter on the pull back to that new resistance?
     
    #20     Nov 7, 2010