Confirmation Bias and Group Think

Discussion in 'Feedback' started by retaildaytrader, Apr 11, 2010.

  1. There are certain blogs and boards out there which are heavily moderated. Most often you see the authors of those blogs delete and ban anyone who has a contrary opinion to theirs. Therefore, it appears like everything is ok and everyone seems to be happy...but wait these boards are not about my opinion on a cup of Starbucks coffee where if I am wrong about the taste of the coffee nothing will matter...these boards are about trading the markets where tens of thousands of dollars can be lost at the push of a button.

    Heavy moderation usually leads to two critical errors:

    Group Think-

    "Groupthink is a type of thought exhibited by group members who try to minimize conflict and reach consensus without critically testing, analyzing, and evaluating ideas. Individual creativity, uniqueness, and independent thinking are lost in the pursuit of group cohesiveness, as are the advantages of reasonable balance in choice and thought that might normally be obtained by making decisions as a group.[1] During groupthink, members of the group avoid promoting viewpoints outside the comfort zone of consensus thinking. A variety of motives for this may exist such as a desire to avoid being seen as foolish, or a desire to avoid embarrassing or angering other members of the group. Groupthink may cause groups to make hasty, irrational decisions, where individual doubts are set aside, for fear of upsetting the group’s balance. The term is frequently used pejoratively, with hindsight."

    Confirmation Bias-

    "Confirmation bias (or myside bias[1]) is a tendency for people to prefer information that confirms their preconceptions or hypotheses, independently of whether they are true.[2][3] People can reinforce their existing attitudes by selectively collecting new evidence, by interpreting evidence in a biased way or by selectively recalling information from memory.[4] Some psychologists use "confirmation bias" for any of these three cognitive biases, while others restrict the term to selective collection of evidence, using assimilation bias for biased interpretation.[5][2]"

    Remember, the best traders in the world are not going to be highly charasmatic popular guys. They are guys that sit by monitors from day to day. Their job is not to interact with people, but to trade what they see. They might sound rude, but thats only how they sound. They are not selling anything so they will not kiss your ass.

    Listen to all viewpoints no matter how stinging they might sound. If someone attacks your character, then think of it as a test. Eventually the market will attack your character and what are you going to do? Write a letter to Baron how the market should be banned?

    This is the real world and you need to learn how to negotiate it. Banning, deleting and censoring only leads to confirmation bias and group think. I would rather be called an asshole to my face and then given some sensible trading advice then to be given some bad trading advice and then afterwords be told nice things.

    I will take good trading advice anyday...I really dont care about charasmatic good sounding words. Sweet thoughts come when the green builds in my account...I dont get offended easily...I do get offended when I see red on the screen though...
  2. Joe


    Thanks for the feedback, I'll keep it in mind when I'm moderating.
  3. wrbtrader


    I'm curious about what actions you'll take if you have a trading blog and several folks continue posting links to pornography, hate groups et cetera. :confused:

    My point is that banning, deleting and censoring usually starts at something we may consider an attack on our creation and it then changes our views about what's allowed and not allowed. Yet, until you create your own forum or blog along with making an effort to maintain may not understand.

  4. Posting links to promote other sites, posting pornography or simply ridiculous outrageous stuff like Neo-Nazi material is stuff that should obviously without question be banned and deleted right away.

    However, I have not seen anything that outrageous here. The closest I have seen is maybe a few photos of some scantily clad ladies, a link to someone's subscription site or someone mentioning they hate Obama. I guess if I cared to go into the Politics and Religion or Chit Chat section then I could probably find stuff that more closely fits your description.
  5. It may have been a little long winded, but I think this Prick made some great points. Nice Post Duschbag.:cool:

  6. fckin hilarious that baron's "exp trader w great content" guard dog Rennick can't smell what he himself is shoveling ............

    with a > 300k-view TRADING thread with not a single entry/exit/Stop/TP/analysis - dead americans everywhere not a single terrorist kill.

    and dig this, not a single trade posted since he first came to ET in 2005.
  7. Rennick is a blowhard and a typical American - as I see it - full of himself, puffed up with self importance.
    I stopped reading his stupid "Urgent Message From Rennick" months ago when I saw how much of a BS artist he is.
    Lots of noise, no substance.
    Guys like this detract from ET, they don't add value imo.
  8. cstfx


    Maybe the reason you have not seen such outrageous postings and links here is the result of the very same active moderation that you decry?
  9. This is how it works. I have seen some great trading calls made on blogs and in threads with very little viewership. Why you ask? Because the majority of trading advice does not fit into what the individual reader is doing...sometimes very good trading advice is not what the particular reader is feeling at the time and does not believe in it. If I told you to get long on February 4th, you would have told me I was nuts for example...

    Controversial threads, blogs and online characters will always garner more attention then the less drama free ones.

    Therefore, its probably best to avoid the more controversial and widely viewed threads on Elitetrader. Look for the little known authors who seem to get it right, but avoid the drama.

  10. LOL, deadbroke=port or rubberschwanz

    Nice post showing your ignorance.


    Fact is, I had one of the only threads in ET history showing actual trades, with real brokers statements to boot. It didn't work out as planned on that run, but I have turned 100 bucks into 10 k trading options on multiple occasions.


    Rennick out
    #10     Apr 15, 2010