Confess or Be W/Out Honor: Who Here Thought The Economy Would Get This Bad?

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ByLoSellHi, May 14, 2009.

  1. For the record, and as almost everyone knows, I'm exceedingly bearish, and believe the economy is going to get much worse.

    I've been and sometimes still am referred to as a 'pessimist' (although not nearly as much as just a year ago).

    I don't believe that I am. I believe that I am inherently realistic, and that I am forming my expectations about the future on the credible things that I read, hear, and most importantly, see with my own eyes.

    What I am seeing now, in almost every area of the country, are dramatic signs that everyone from the top 1% to the middle class have been bludgeoned so badly in terms of either loss of wealth and/or employment insecurity, that they are undergoing a permanent shift in their underlying psyche, in much the same manner I imagine some of our grandparents or great grandparents (some of your great, great grandparents if you're younger than 22 or so) experienced during the Great Depression, when they became frugal in ways that would blow most of our minds, because of the traumatic economic shock that they experienced; thing such as going without food or clothing will do that to the human mind.

    I am also seeing an incredible uptick in the number of homeless people, many of whom were formerly employed in good or even great jobs, and some of whom actually had a lot of wealth on paper during the boom times, but lost it through poor management and because of the crash in asset values if they were in debt, either living in temporary circumstances at the homes of relatives, friends or others, and many people living out their cars, RVs and in shelters. I know that some of the headlines we thought may have been sensationalistic on this issue actually weren't, and that this is a real and growing problem.

    So, man up.

    Who honestly believed, a year or two ago, that the economy would get as bad as it is now?
  2. spinn


    my charts were indicating a major collapse was imminent about 18 months ago.......

    I did not expect it to happen anywhere near this quickly, however. I expected more of a slow grind diwn first.

    I too was accused of pessimism.....I just saw that there were no buyers anywhere in sight....that was just the reality.
  3. empee


    so what ur saying is your bizzaro stock_tr3dr?
  4. Only substantive feedback is allowed in this thread.

    You're looking for 'Chit Chat.'

    It's just down the hall, about 150 feet, to your left.
  5. ByLo,

    I believe that one creates their own realty -- starting with their core beliefs.

    If one believes they will succeed or fail -- they're right.

    If one believes to see the worst in situations or the best -- you will

    It all comes down to what does one want to see -- it will happen.

    So keep us informed with your "reality" articles. I, for one, use it to temper my profound belief that I will not only survive but will inherently grow and prosper -- along with my fellow humans - through this difficult time.

  6. toc


    it can get bad till 2011 as per the cycles and after that some relief.

    hoarde up on canned food and buy a gun for both offensive and defensive needs. :D :D :D :D :D :D
  7. I can't say that I saw I saw this coming. The sheer collapse of the housing market was incredible. We all know how it unfolded.
    In hindsight, yes there were signs. Unfortunately for many, those signs were not available or easliy understood by the general public.

    And I don't consider myself a pessimist either. A simple realist who thinks bad times are coming for millions of people across the globe, with no way to escape the pain.
  8. I appreciate the significance of what you are saying, but at some point, even those who are most capable and resilient can be subject to the environment brewing around them, despite their best efforts.

    As to any individual person, will they thrive or sink? Fate and faith have a real grudge match on that one the worse things get.
  9. I was obviously among the most bearish, beginning with my 'Get The Hell Out' series of threads (ahhh...good times), but even I underestimated the depth and pace of the housing downturn.

    I'm not that bright, but I know specific things right now from the originating sources, and things will get far worse in not only housing, but office, industrial, commercial/retail and multi-family unit rents, prices and vacancy rates.

    p.s. - Don't forget that much of the nastiest stuff is still being kept out of sight. I dare anyone to disprove that the same space Goldman Sachs was paying $192 per square foot to lease in shiny new offices in Dubai can be had for less than $40 right now, and they'll throw every incentive at anyone to take it at that rate, so the real rate is even less.

    A law firm just picked up an entire floor of space in Manhattan that a hedge fund defaulted on. The hedge fund was paying over $100 per square foot, and the law firm just signed a lease up at $36.

    The most prime space in Canary Wharf's financial offices has fallen to 1991 rates.
  10. November 2007 swing trade short entries initiated.......:)

    The planned "financial grid takedown" play was a winner. :eek:
    #10     May 15, 2009