Let's look at what you posted to me. Let us get to the chase HolyGrail. How much are you losing so far? Do not try to justify things. Check your account between 3:40PM yesterday and close of today, and you will now if the market is strong or weak. I'm not losing anything. Strike one. BTW, the market was flushing her signs yesterday, but the majority (as usual) did not listen. Unnecessary after-the-fact advice. Strike two. but, I have a possible good news for you. Wednesday or most likely Thursday the truck may go back to save the injured. Board it, and stop arguing with the market. More unecessary advice and then you tell me to stop arguing with the market. Where have you seen me argue with the market? Find me one instance. Strike 3 you're outta there.
HG, from IBD: Despite all of the moves, the market remains in a pronounced downtrend. Monday's Nasdaq close marked that index's lowest point since September 2006. The stock market is still in a correction, even after Tuesday's big price gains. To establish a new uptrend, investors need to see another surge among the major indexes in higher volume. Friday would likely be the first opportunity for the market to prove itself. Leading stocks would also need to show strength, ideally by building and breaking out of sound price bases, then spurting to new highs. Curiously, Tuesday's big rally didn't include as many big moves by top-rated stocks as you might expect, given the size of the broad market's advance. Much of the money flowed into beaten-down investment banks such as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley, (MS) along with other huge industry names like Citigroup (C) and Bank of America. (BAC) Such stocks are highly liquid megacaps which are heavily weighted among the broad indexes. As a result, the market was able to score big gains without heavy participation from many of its top-rated leaders. That said, the session's rally wasn't entirely lacking in strong moves by highly ranked stocks. The IBD 100 vaulted 5.2%. - - It's much too early to tell if this isn't mostly a short-covering rally. Remember Jan. 22 "reversal"? Everyone here swore it was a definitive move destined for a big bull rally. pS
That was my basic premise of my opening post. Typically when we get a move like this there will be at least a 2% move in the bullish index. Now granted, we have been knocked down quite a bit, but I have seen many times when we were at a low in the index and we will still move up at least 2% on a much lessor move than we had today.
Also check this pic out. The Stock Market has been trying to complete a healthy correction for an entire year. First interrupted by perma-bull, novice Wall Street traders and then the Fed. All this Fed intervention is prolonging the inevitable pain that has to be felt (capitulation). But the big boys are getting their hides saved in the process. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if this was all manipulative pump and dump for big money - globally - to try and recoup mega-billions from bad bets - at the expense of the short-seller, taxpayer, etc. pS
I like your dedication to facts HolyGrail. But strike 2 (and 3 see below) is not correct (you did not read my thread yesterday?). As for strike 3, I think I have a different view because I understood you saying that the big move today is really not a true one because of your index. So implicitely you are doubting the market. But there is also the chicken and the egg things (which one lead the market: the index or the stocks?). Anyhow, I think you are a good trader and you reason well. Cheers buddy!
IBD are clueless. They are good in a bullish market. Over the last 4 to 6 months, they got all their rally calls wrong, and they existed it late. My predictions has been correct, but I got defensive because their market calls as I know they have a large following (otherwise I would have made more than I made). But it is ok. No need to be greedy.
I was simply making an observation. When I see something happen that I have never seen before it causes me concern until I can figure it out. I have never seen the market move up this much without having an impact on the bulish percent. Does it mean anything? I don't know for sure. Sorry for calling you an asshole, but I just felt like you were assuming an awful lot about me. As a couple of people suggested it could just mean because we were in such a large downtrend it will take awhile for the bullish percent to move up. This is very plausable, but I have my doubts. What is necessary is more information. I believe we are at a critical point in this cycle, but I want to see confirmation that we are moving up. I posted a chart of the bullish percent index. It takes 6% to reverse a column. If we get a 6% move before we hit a new low then I will be looking for nothing but long entries for my swing trading.
Actually they went bullish almost at the very bottom of the Feb/Mar '07 quick dip and then called market in correction 26-Jul-2007. Then accurately gave the new rally call Aug 29th until the correction in November. It has been touch and go since but since 04-Jan-08 when most of the damage hit they called correction. Short-lived rally calls are factored in as calls are historically only 80% accurate, but loss trade management covers most erroneous entries. Trading these phases with high-growth stocks (Bidu, Goog, Rimm, Fslr, etc.) and the new leaders to emerge would compound quite powerfully enough over time. But you are right things have been a bit sketchy to say the least - thx to Uncle Ben and crew. So being (successful) day-trader in this market must be lucrative. But make no mistake, the next big bull run is not etched in stone - despite all the Fed geriatrics and ET theatrics! pS
I agree with you HG. My reading of it is that traders now mainly trade indices (not the stocks). When there is an annoucement like today's all try to get long, stop their shorts, and all of that. It runs fast. Probably a program trade will push indices back in line with stocks, and as you said we will see how things develop from there. Thanks for the thoughts HG.
Agree with you. I was talking about the late calls (3 or 4 of them). I think the market will be more reasonable in the future (probably range bound). As of Monday close, It took 25% of IWM from the high ( i trade IWM). Assuming a 2 yrs bear market correcting 50% from top, this means we were half way in 6 months (for IWM). 6 months is 25% of 2 years, and it led to half of the assumed bear leg. So it is in line with probabilities (half the move done is 1/4 of the time). So I do not expect IWM for go below 57 by end of summer (which 7to 8 dollars from close of Monday.