Compounding To A Big Winner

Discussion in 'Trading' started by oten, Dec 12, 2003.

  1. nkhoi

    nkhoi Moderator

    oten as in win often :confused: he must be practicing the self help motto; if you act like a winner, if you talk like a winner, if you think like a winner then you are are winner. :D
     
    #11     Dec 13, 2003
  2. Thanks for the info. Especially number 2.

    Edit: I just read a post or two on the IN2WIN/OTEN thread.

    I accepted your word on this. I don't know your system. But, since I have posted it I think I will add a little of my own observation for those who are willing to believe anything, as bone would say, this from my market mantra notes:

    *If you are wrong the market plays as if you buy/sell the new level. It then moves to your scratch point inviting you to buy/sell even more. If it can clear out one of these levels it will then, later, attempt to blast through it. The market works continually like a martingale process, so be very selective if you are on the wrong side trying to fade the move.

    If you look long enough at something you can convince yourself of almost anything.
     
    #12     Dec 13, 2003
  3. Re-reading the above post I realize the term 'martingale process' may be somewhat confusing. Here is a quote from the link to give you a general understanding of what I was saying in my note to myself:

    A martingale, as the learned readers of this journal will recall, is a stochastic process without a trend, one for which the best prediction we can make of the future is that it will be just like the present. More exactly, its expected value at time t + 1 is just its value at time t. Yet more exactly, a stochastic process {Xt} is a martingale if, and only if,

    E [Xt + 1 | Xt, Xt - 1, ... X1] = Xt.

    There is thus no trend to the process, and it is, in that sense, unpredictable (This uses a weak notion of prediction. Imagine the following random walk: take one step right with probability 0.99, and 99 steps left with probability 0.01. The walk is a martingale, but if you can just bet on going left or right, a winning strategy exists (bet right).). The origins of the name are lost in the mists of the history of English gambling.


    from: http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1469-7688/2/3/702

    Sorry if my phraseology was off-putting or seemed to be condescending to you.



    :cool:
     
    #13     Dec 13, 2003