WHAT ARE YOUR CONCLUSIONS? So, after evaluating or summarizing my current forecast models on the five instruments I'm trading (see below), I find that in general, the best "money measure" varies from ten minutes to 17 minutes, with 13 minutes in the middle—though it drops all the way down to seven minutes when switching from commodities to foreign currency pairs. On the other hand, to get the bigger picture, foreign currency pairs use 6½-hours and 90-minutes, whereas gold uses one and two hours, silver uses 80 minutes, natural gas uses 90-minutes and two hours, and crude oil uses 50 minutes. Hence, the consensus seems to be 50 to 120 minutes, with 80 to 90 minutes being more the norm.
"Fearless Fun" Forecast When AUDUSD broke through the level highlighted by the white circle, it transitioned (in my eyes) from bearish to bullish. This was sort of confirmed when, in the words of Gareth Soloway, it "returned to the scene of the crime" at the first gray arrow, where former resistance looks to have turned into current support. Like before, I am saying that the pair is (again in my opinion) headed in the "wrong" direction. Nonetheless, it can (theoretically) crawl all the way down to where I calculate what I call "statistical support" (the second gray arrow) without my recategorizing it as bearish. So then, I would love to buy it off a bounce in the neighborhood of 0.6634, but would gladly settle for a bullish reversal anywhere between that level and where it is now.
The point where AUDUSD tagged the diagonal line that I call "statistical resistance" would have been a great spot to lock in gains. When the pair breached what I call "statistical support" (i.e., the white circle), it once again officially became bearish in my book. This is a good example of why I don't believe in buying and holding Forex pairs. (This was Support Level I. The "Ultimate Statistical Support Level" drawn in Post #922 was Support Level II.) (By the way, note how once price violated statistical support, it immediately bounced off the same graphic, illustrating how former support becomes the new resistance.)
If I focus on 11- rather than 6½-hours as my core measure, almost all the pairs I watch are running out of steam in terms of their day-to-day progress. So then, it's no surprise that AUDUSD has gone from bearish to bullish back to bearish all within just the last three days. The only pair that's really holding course is USDCAD. Consequently, it becomes a sell candidate anywhere above this bearish channel (at any point where a bearish reversal alert is signaled, that is).
So then, based on what I've found works well when trading Forex, this is the best I can do at the moment to code an indicator that will hopefully assist me in doing what I do in the way that I do it, without my having to personally monitor my charts. Again, the arrows don't tell me exactly when to enter a position, but rather, simple signal me (via audio alert) as to when the structure for a potential trade might be setting up. I've circled the actual pullbacks following most of the alerts (arrows) that would have probably constituted the optimal moments to enter positions...
"Granular Trading" Most of my recent posts originally stemmed from the use of 15-minute charts, though after drawing my trend lines, I usually toggled down to five-minutes for uploading to this thread. However, I've now extrapolated all the general ideas down to my one-minute charts, and will resume trading primarily from the perspective of this context. (So no, by granular trading, I do NOT mean "an extensive and well-diversified portfolio with investments in a wide range of sectors.") So now five hours into the new 24-hour market cycle, this granular view suggests that AUDUSD might be trying to reverse course from bearish to bullish. EURJPY and GBPJPY turned south at the start of the new cycle. USDJPY turned south just a while ago. USDCAD looks to be losing momentum, but has not yet managed to actually turn over. And EURUSD and GBPUSD might also by trying to turn north.
TRADING FOREX AT THE GRANULAR LEVEL I used to have an argument at the granular level as to who was in charge, the 20-, 30- or 40-minute measure? I also debated whether I should be looking at their baselines, or at their price range envelopes/price flow channels? However, I think I have my definitive answer now in that it’s… None of the above! You have to look at the relationship of all these measures to one another. And though one might be tempted to merely go with the relationship of the 20-minute baseline to the 30-minute baseline, its 'just not as simple as that. The somewhat lagging nature of these two moving averages requires that one ALSO consider the more sensitive, but also more unstable, ten-minute baseline. And not only that, but if the frequently vacillating four-minute price flow channel at 0.01% deviation (which will often constantly duck and weave both above and below all three of the previously-mentioned measures) creates space between itself and the 20-minute baseline, or even the very unstable ten-minute baseline, you have to respect that. You cannot ignore it and simply must go with it; or at the very least, abandon any contrary positions until all the measures are once again back in full agreement. And note that ALL of these measures can counter the slope of the 90-minute baseline—and EVEN violate the 90-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation—WITHOUT changing the slower measure's trajectory, and with all of them eventually reversing course to ultimately come BACK into alignment with the 90-minute flow. So then, in addition to consulting all of the baselines already mentioned and the 90-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation, my preference as of late is to regard the four-minute and ten-minute measures as a team, and to also seek the wise counsel of the eight-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation, the ten-minute price range envelope at 0.05% deviation, the 20-minute price range envelope at 0.09% deviation (as a typical support/resistance level), and the 30-minute price range envelope at 0.13% deviation as a slightly more extreme statistical support/resistance level. (For the time being at least, I no longer deem the advice of the 40- or 60-minute measures as necessary, in that they I don't believe they bring anything to the table that is not already handled by one or more of the measures mentioned above.)
This was a fantastic day... So what were the finessed measures used to trade during this 24-hour market cycle? GOLD I would say that gold's money measure is the ten-minute "yellow brick road" at 0.02% deviation, though it's best if the direction of this measure is confirmed by the bold black 20-minute baseline. Even so, the precious metal's "ultimate" intraday destination is suggested (or conveyed) by the slope of the aqua 30-minute baseline. The assets' frequent short-lived fluctuations are tracked by (meaning entry and exit levels are suggested by) the dark blue and firebrick 1½-minute price flow channel at 0.01% deviation. SILVER This precious metal's frequent kind-of-stable/kind-of-unstable intermediate short-term price action, as represented by the brown four-minute price flow channel at 0.05% deviation, must be evaluated in light of the much steadier, yet also much less responsive/sensitive, dark slate gray 13-minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation, which is a great deal more indicative of where silver is truly headed. Even so, it's best if the "ultimate" direction of these two measures is confirmed by their positions with respect to AND the slope of the red 26-minute baseline. CRUDE OIL This fuel's unstable, frequently fluctuating short-term price action, as represented by the black and grey two-minute price flow channel at 0.02% deviation, must be evaluated in light of the steadier, yet still relatively unstable slate blue, orchid and crimson six-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation. Even so, the actual arbiter of intraday bias/sentiment, thereby constituting oil's "money measure," is the black and brown 13-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation, which therefore reflects the previous two measures’ "ultimate" destination. That said, even this still somewhat unstable 13-minute arbiter can bear a little support (validation) from the "zebra" (21½-minute) baseline, along with the red 20-minute price range envelope at 0.14% deviation. NATURAL GAS I would identify as natural gas' money measure the overall directional tendency of the white and goldenrod ten-minute price range envelope at 0.25% deviation. This price action is confirmed by the slope of the black and tan 17-minute price range envelope at 0.30% and 0.70% deviation. Additional confirmation comes from the somewhat lagging black and yellow "sparkled" 40-mute baseline. The frequent, unstable intermediate short-term price action (fluctuations) within (usually) the ten-minute channel is tracked by the blue, red and medium orchid 4¼-minute price flow channel at 0.08% deviation. FOREIGN CURRENCY PAIRS (FOREX) This is a slightly different take from that expressed in the previous post… I would identify the money measure for the currency pairs as the 11½- (or 12-) minute price range envelope at 0.05% (and 0.09%) deviation, though this MUST be evaluated in light of the fluctuations of the maroon and midnight blue short-term, price shadowing, two-minute price range envelope at 0.02% deviation. It also pays to monitor the directional tendency of the cornflower blue and light coral eight-minute price flow channel at 0.03% deviation; and to look for confirmation regarding the 12-minute measure's true intentions from the burlywood 40-minute price range envelope at 0.13% deviation (along with its corresponding baseline), not to mention the sea green 90-minute baseline. (You should probably at least also add the 30-minute statistical support/resistance level graphics cited in yesterday’s Post #929.)