And that's that (apparently). The above alterations comport with reality 100% as best as I can tell. So, my next area of interest is to explore whether it's possible for me to come up with a profitable approach to buying and then selling weekly options contracts on the same day the are set to expire.
When I transcribe the "Undeniable Graphics" configuration down to lower-time-frame charts, here is what I end up with... The slowest measure I used was the two-hour price flow channel at two levels. Unsatisfied with what I saw, I ended up also plotting the proprietary dynamic/adaptive indicator with the numeral 48 and the word "SMOOTHED" in the title—at two levels. However, this ate up a lot of memory, so I analyzed it and determined it equaled 100 minutes. I then substituted it with standard envelopes, but because they weren't adaptive, I had to plot them at four levels instead of two: 0.6%, 0.10%, 0.16% and 0.30% deviation. So then, it looks like these channels are taking the place of... "the overall general direction in which rates are ultimately headed in the longer run (from an intraday perspective) as represented by the 60- and especially the 90-minute baselines." In short, the 90-minute baseline is replaced by 100-minute envelopes, and the two-hour measures are gone. Now, rates tend to reverse direction at the 0.10% deviation level of this measure at the most, so if they don't, there is a greater than 50/50 chance that price might be embarking on a run. If true, then candlesticks will continue painting on the corresponding side of—not the ten-minute price range channel at 0.4% deviation, which I stated was the measure to use for conveying the "fastest actionable" price action; nor the 15-/16-minute measures that I skipped over for failing to be precise enough, but rather—the 14-minute baseline. The run isn't deemed to be over until and unless this "barrier" is broken. Also, rather than having "the broader bounds of intraday (intermediate) action suggested by the 40-minute price range envelope at 0.18% deviation, it is replaced by the 50-minute baseline, as suggested by the proprietary measure whose title contains the numerals 5 and 12 along with the words: path, band and SMOOTHED. This means I am looking to enter positions in the direction of the 50- and 90-minute price flows, as dictated by the five- and 14-minute baselines, rather than what I was doing previously, which is to say: "shadow rates for entry and exit levels using the three-minute price flow channel at 0.02% deviation, with the ten-minute price range channel at 0.4% deviation serving as a more precise measure for conveying the 'fastest actionable' maneuvers." I seem to have concluded that it is neither necessary nor best to trade at such a "granular/microscopic" level, except now that I think of it, I have only dropped down as low as five-minute charts. After I transcribe the "Undeniable Graphics" chart setup down to a one-minute context, which I am almost certain to do, perhaps I will change my mind and go with the more detailed three and ten-minute measures after all, or at the very least, supplement the other measures with them. UPDATE: From a one-minute perspective, the three-minute price flow channel at 0.02% deviation is essentially conveying the same price action as the five-minute baseline, more-or-less; with price typically fluctuating above and below the 14-minute baseline between the upper and lower bands of the ten-minute SMA envelope at 0.4% deviation. Consequently, when candlesticks don't reverse direction at either band, it is probably initiating what is, at the very least, a short-term (or short-lived) run. So in conclusion, at this level, these two measures can be added to supplement the ones listed above. Also, any initially short-term run can be redefined as more significant/substantial if it continues beyond the 0.10% deviation level, and especially the 0.16% deviation level, of the 100-minute envelope(s), as mentioned earlier.
Compare this study with the chart setup from Post #882 and verify whether these supposed reversal confirmation signals are valid (i.e., when the lower red band connects with the three green upsloping baselines from below or when the upper blue band connects with the three green down-sloping baselines from above).
SELECTING STRIKE PRICES Validate (or invalidate) the following observation with respect to choosing strike prices while trading NADEX binary option contracts—that the contrary bands on the "pale violet red" envelope at the pictured deviation level are virtually never violated.
Narrow the space between the upper blue and lower red bands by 58%, and instead of consulting the three green baselines, narrow your focus to the green baseline in the middle. Also, the perspective of the image in Post #882 is representing a totally different time frame and therefore has no relevance at all with respect to the setup from Post #884. ...looks good.
Use the green and orange/yellow lower-panel histograms to help guide you in the application of the indicators referenced in your previous post (Post #886): Yellow: The orange histogram is alone in suggesting you sell the asset. Orange: The green histogram is alone in recommending short positions. Deep Orange: Both histograms indicate price could be accelerating its descent. Khaki: The signals are conflicting. Light Blue: The orange histogram is alone in suggesting you buy the asset. Deep Blue: Both histograms are indicating that price could be accelerating its ascent. The above interpretations are made in the context of the overall flow of price action defined by the green envelopes/channels in the following image... WARNING...CAVEAT! If bars belonging to either the green OR orange/yellow histogram are decreasing in size, there is a significant possibility that it could be a signal to exit the position, even if the bars are still breaching the corresponding threshold levels (as the placement of the horizontal bars I plotted on the top chart reflect/respect). (Perhaps the best time to enter positions is when the 14-minute trend reverses direction to rejoin the trajectory of aligned 60- and 90-minute price flows.)
One of my major goals up until now was to master trading in-the-money binary option contracts. Since I don't think I'm likely to get any better at this than I already am, I just turned my attention to doing the same with out-of-the-money contracts. In the process, I've ended up consulting measures that are different from those I was last using just a week ago. Rather than 90 minutes serving as my longer-range horizon, it is 120 minutes (two hours) instead, with the relationships between it and the 50-, 15-, 5- and 3½-minute baselines and price flow envelopes rounding out the set—15 minutes being the most important measure among the group.
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 20, 2024 | 9:53 AM PST For the longest time, I avoided Nadex binary options longer than the back half of two-hour contracts due to the frequency of rate reversals in the Forex market. However, based on a newly configured forecast model having eight- and 36-hour measures at its core, I suspect that such avoidance might no longer be necessary...