Don't trade GBPUSD! The pair has essentially gone nowhere in the last five weeks. So then, take a look at all your other four-hour charts and see if anyone on your watch list IS trending strongly from week to week. So then, generally speaking, it looks like I'll want to limit my swing trading to when the slope of the three-day price flow, as represented by the lower panel histogram, is greater than 0.2054, or less than -0.2054... AUDUSD meets the above condition, yet the current four-hour candlestick is green. So then, will the pair drop to my take-profit target over the next eight hours? That's what I'll be waiting to find out... Other pairs that meet the 0.2054/-0.2054 threshold include EURJPY, GBPJPY, USDCHF and USDJPY. (USDCAD is right on the edge.) Presently I am long USDCHF...
This looks promising, even though I stumbled across it inadvertently by accidentally slapping my latest one-hour configuration on a four-hour chart... It appears that entering positions as the black "tube" channel comes out of pullbacks against the sloping purple (and/or white) baselines and then pocketing gains as the tube reverses direction back toward the central tendency might indeed be quite a profitable strategy. And since I have absolutely no idea what measures these graphics represent, it's time for me to go find out. Then I will compare and contrast the results with the four-hour charts I was using last night.
It looks like this means I will only be entering positions for a given currency pair a maximum of about once a week. That's not really true. Something here got mixed up. I don't think the one-hour configuration was a correct translation from the four-hour charts. I think I probably overlooked some of the four-hour measures and left/transposed them the same when I was constructing the one-hour version.
This has led me right back to the same measures I was using in the past (the three-, six- and 18-hour price range/flow envelopes). So then, the real aspect that needs to me pinned down is where to best enter and exit positions. Nonetheless, I'm still maintaining that in the end, factors are likely to recommend a maximum of one set of transactions (entry and exit) per asset per week. At this point, let's assume that we ultimately want to be trading in the direction of the 18-hour price flow when the six- and 18-hour baselines are both angled in the same direction, or at very least, when the two measure are "properly" aligned with respect to the slope of the slower moving average. For now, we will define higher highs and lower lows as when the top or bottom of one-hour candlesticks pop out above or below the three-hour price range envelope at 0.15% deviation, as appropriate. If the direction of the 18-hour price flow is maintaining its course, this maneuver will not continue on the "far" side of the slope of its trajectory for more than three or four hours, and the time to enter positions will be when the hourly trend reverses direction so that candles re-enter the interior of the three-hour channel. If this price action continues for more than four hours, chances are that you are looking at the initiation of a reversal in the direction of the six-hour (and three-hour) price flow. If the six- and 18-hour channels are neutral, it might make sense to enter positions at the 0.45% deviation level of the six-hour price range envelope. End of post?
The above thoughts led to successful trades with AUDJPY, EURGBP, EURJPY and USDJPY this morning. However, GBPUSD (which I did not buy) and which the above conjectures would have me expecting to rise from the bottom of its three-hour envelope (seeing as how the six- and 18-hour channels were bullish) is now looking at a bearish hourly price flow channel. I am therefore very interested to see what happens next. The six-hour price flow is now arguably neutral, with the bottom of the corresponding envelope at 1.2635. It seems to me that this would make its present location at 1.2671 down to the lower value a buy zone, and that I am merely waiting for the 60-minute baseline to turn north. On the other hand, if price continues lower than 1.2635, I suspect that would indicate that the pair is probably in the process of executing a wholesale bearish reversal. Is USDCAD going to head south now? I scalped a few pips worth of profit by shorting USDCAD just now, because I have no idea what's going to happen when the USA Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment numbers are released in ten minutes, which is why I didn't stick around in the hopes of reaping a more substantial return.
@ 1.2680, GBPUSD now looks poised to head higher. But of course, at 9:45 AM PST on a Friday, with the Forex market virtually dead at this hour, I don't really expect the pair to go anywhere before the closing bell. UPDATE: @ 1.2691, the pair HAS at least managed to offer ten pip's worth of profit.
Well...what do you know? The week is not quite over yet and GBPUSD managed to climb a not-so-insignificant number of pips after all.
You've slapped together too many possible chart configurations today to remember—ones with too much potential to let slip your mind. So, record their names below so you won't overlook any when you analyze things this weekend: 5-Minute WHEN TO BUY WHEN TO SELL 1-Minute from 5-MINUTE WHEN TO BUY WHEN TO SELL 4-Hour The Swing of Things ENTRANCE and EXIT Levels 1-Hour from 4-Hour The Swing of Things ENTRANCE and EXIT Levels 1-Hour FOUR-HOUR BELT ON ONE-HOUR CHARTS 5-Minute from 1-Hour FOUR-HOUR BELT plus THE SWING OF THINGS ENTRANCE-EXIT
Is it true that the 12-hour price flow will not oppose the three-day flow for more than two days—or three days at the most; and that if it does, it will begin pulling the slower measure in the opposite direction along with it? If so, this will give you a heads up as to when to anticipate rates might exit pullbacks in the day-to-day trend, and when to be on the alert for them to execute wholesale, fully-fledged reversals in their daily trajectory.