Tuesday | November 28, 2023 | 1:20 AM PST My numbers are suggesting to me that the probability AUDUSD might rise from 0.6607 are greater than the odds it might fall... Conversely, I'm looking to see EURJPY come down from where it is right now.
The above ideas were based on the tactics (or puzzle pieces) stemming from a short little exercise or study I recorded in a thread I titled: Peaks (Crests) and Troughs. The subsequent price action played out very much as I might have hoped and essentially according to plan. This means there is little point in my continuing to post my own ideas in this "Compare and Contrast" space since I will no longer be evaluating my own actions. With all the pieces in place, my plan going forward is to simply act accordingly. Consequently, I anticipate that any future entries here will consist of looking at (comparing and contrasting) the ideas of other traders (primarily who post on YouTube) just for the fun of it.
I seem to recall Nick McDonald of Trade with Precision saying (several years ago) that they have a 16-point checklist there that they go through before ever making a trade. At the time I wondered, "Is that really necessary?" However, seeing as how AJ Monte has a seven-point checklist he promotes with his viewers/listeners... ...and how I'm going to have anywhere from eleven to 15 items on the checklist emerging as I finish listing the day trading factors I consider while referring to the chart(s) I use for that style of trading; I now understand why there could have easily been 16 substantive determinants that McDonald and his crew considered before making any of their decisions.
TUESDAY | DECEMBER 5, 2023 This morning you designed a "lazy" one-hour chart configuration with an audible alert that will let you know at the top of each hour if there is a setup for buying the back end of a NADEX two-hour binary option contract. This way, you can spend 59 minutes of each hour doing other things, and you don't even have to check your charts unless you hear one or more alerts sound at the top of the hour. However, in transposing those measures to lower timeframes, you made a number of observations that piqued your curiosity as to whether these more detailed charts can be used in other ways... For example, the bold white baseline appears to suggest the gist of the overall directional flow, with the outside band on the slate gray envelope estimating/approximating the maximum amount of pullback. And of course, the other side of the envelope can be used to help anticipate the general zone or level where it might make sense to be looking to lock in one's gains. And for more tactical, shorter-term returns, you might look to enter positions when candlesticks enter the region between the red and white moving averages when both measures are sloping in the same direction. In such instances, the decision on when to exit with profit is likely to be facilitated by the envelope consisting of the midnight blue upper band and maroon lower band.
I certainly can't disagree with Cristian's call on AUDUSD, though I went long today at 0.6589 (for the time being) due to price being positioned within the low end of a neutral two-day price flow envelope. To short the pair, I will be waiting to see the three- and six-day price flows reverse south, which my numbers suggest hasn't happened yet. THE THREE-DAY PRICE FLOW: