Wednesday, August 30, 2023 At this point, I've had enough experience working with my system that I am able to formulate some definite opinions. For example, given my personal trading goals and style, for me, I see the backbone of my approach to intraday trading as the 34-minute price range envelope at 0.06% and 0.10% deviation. Yes, I DO want to be trading in the same direction as the slope of the 20-minute baseline…ideally…but most of the time, I will find myself doing so only temporarily. The overall "actionable" intraday price flow is conveyed by the 34-minute measure! For example, if the 34-minute measures are sloping downward, and price suddenly changes direction from a northbound to southbound trajectory, and does so above the top band of the 34-minute envelope at 0.10% deviation, I will want to enter a short position as soon as the five-minute price-flow channel confirms this reversal, or certainly no later than observing the ten-minute channel’s having done the same. This would be justified based on price structure, historical data and/or reoccurring price patterns alone. The amount of lag evidenced by the 20-minute measure would argue against waiting for this lagging (in this context) indicator to agree. On the other hand, if the 20- and 34-minute measures were BOTH pointing in the same direction, and the five-minute price-flow channel reversed course from a direction that was opposite the slope of these two measures to a trajectory in sync with it, this too would, on average, be a great time to execute a trade, even if price was not bouncing off a designated support or resistance level—simply because it would be headed in the same direction as the 20-minute baseline AND in the same direction as the 34-minute measure(s). However, I would definitely want to pocket my gains as soon as I observed that the 20-minute measure was turning back against the slower baseline, that is, if I had not already done so due to reversals in the faster measures, especially if these measures switched direction beyond the opposite bands of the 34-minute channel at 0.06% or 0.10% deviation.
This is conveyed by the 0.0125 and -0.0125 levels of the lower-panel histogram representing the slope of the 20-minute baseline. If you're opting to be rather aggressive...
I think the above measures are particularly well-suited for 20-minute binary options. But, since Nadex does not have 20-minute Forex binary options, let me see if I can fit the measures to the USA indices instead. To clue me in as to how I calculate each measure without sharing that information with anyone else, I'm going to call the pink channel the Interval Indicator, the black channel the Smoothed Indicator, the green channels the Path Indicator an the purple channels the Traditional Indictor. So, when might it work to purchase a 20-minute USA Index binary option contract? How about when the interval, Smoothed and Traditional envelopes are all clearly aligned in the same direction, and price pulls back to the back/far side/band of the Traditional Indicator, as pictured below? Maybe, but note that while Examples A and B would have worked out regardless, Example C might have closed in-the-money OR out-of-the-money depending on how much time was left on the contract at the moment the position was entered. So then, it is clear that this tactic will not work ALL the time, and therefore, when using it one must be prepared to abandon the position if price pulls back to the entry level. Sample 2 from the above post, where price fails to break out above or below the fat upper or lower (as appropriate) Path Indicator band looks like another potential setup. You know a fail is NOT in progress if candlesticks continue to form above or below the Smoothed Indicator.
Thursday | September 7, 2023 Okay, here is where things stand as of today... You are restricting yourself to only two or three setups at this point, both/all of which work extremely well. one is to enter positions based on reversals in the four-minute price flow at 0.02% deviation. This comes from your "TRADING WHOLE LOTS" setup. These reversals occur where price is rejected at the upper or lower band of the 70-minute temporal support/resistance channel near the top or bottom of the 36- (or 34-) minute price flow envelope at 0.06% deviation, switching from a trajectory opposed to the slope of said envelope to one that's in sync with it. These reversals are confirmed with increasing levels of stability, but also accompanied by greater amounts of lag, by the 8½-, 11- and 20-minute measures. The middle of the 34-minute envelope serves as a conservative take-profit target, with the band on the "surge side" of the envelope constituting a more aggressive/ambitious goal. (More extreme reversal levels on the associated charts are calculated at 0.13% and 0.20% deviation.) The other two setups are observed on the "PATH" charts. Generally speaking, look for reversals at the two levels of the setup's primary channels. More specifically, watch for price flow to switch direction from a course contrary to the slope of the eight-hour baseline to one that matches it, using the baseline itself as the take-profit target. (Using standard envelopes to estimate the measure of these proprietary indicators suggests that you're talking about the 90-minute price flow channel at approximately 0.10% and 0.25% deviation.)
You're looking for this to coincide with pullbacks to or beyond the center of a sloping two-hour price range envelope at 0.13% deviation.
Thursday | September 14, 2023 So, since last Thursday, my tactics have evolved such that the results of the last 24 hours of trading hint at a possibility that, at this time, raising my sights might be appropriate. The strategy consists of using a longer-term point of view via the hourly chart configuration that focuses on the eight- and 30-hour measures, along with the shorter-term perspective offered by the five-minute "projected hourly price ranges" chart along with the "one-minute insights plus" setup. More specifically, you want to enter positions in the direction of the 30-hour trend when price is positioned "behind" a sloping 30-hour baseline provided that candlesticks are simultaneously forming beyond the eight-hour price range envelope at 0.25% deviation. Another measure to keep in mind is the two-hour price range envelope at about 0.08% and 0.18% deviation. I say "about" because these measures only approximate the indicators that should actually be used, which are your proprietary "path" channels. In terms of the short-term measures, you want to observe how price interacts with the 8½-price range envelop at 0.05% deviation. For one thing, watch for in to maneuver a mean reversion, with the rate regressing toward the mean, should the oscillator on the corresponding lower-panel indicator exceed the 0.412 or -0.412 level(s). (And should the rate fail to revert as anticipated, expect it to execute an extended run instead.)
What constitutes a reversal at these levels? On my OANDA charts, I'm using the crossover of the three-minute price flow channel, and on my MT5 chart, I'm using the four-minute price flow channel, both at 0.02% deviation.
In my attempt to optimize Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) so that it is a "perfect fit" for the unique/specific challenges presented by both Tradiac and Nadex, I've arrived at a very well-defined strategy over this weekend, enough so that I returned to the task of coding an indicator out of necessity, given that I will not be personally monitoring my charts all day long, as this approach (stemming from the configuration I named "micro manager") demands. I look forward to putting it to the test during live trading this week.