Numerical Weather Prediction is a field where meteorologists produce weather forecasts through large computer simulations by taking the classical physical laws governing the flow of the atmosphere, expressing them in mathematical equations, and then solving these equations using high-performance supercomputers. (See Post #626.) When they do, they don't just produce a single forecast. Rather, they produce multiple forecasts in what's known as an ensemble prediction system, the idea of which is to take account of Chaos Theory (trying to represent all of the little uncertainties that exist in the atmosphere when doing numerical weather simulations). For this reason, the best practice is to run several simulations of the weather model so that they can get a handle on the uncertainty in the atmosphere to get a probabilistic output. However, because I don't have access to incredibly powerful supercomputers to deal with the huge volumes of data I would ideally be ingesting and analyzing, I have to adjust my Numerical Price Prediction forecasts on the fly, in real time, based on the "laws" governing the flow of asset prices.
Nothing happened at 11 PM last night, and 5:30 AM just produced normal price behavior, but the 11 AM activity offered some great opportunities to pick up some quick profits. I opted to gather mine from AUDJPY as it rose from a low of 94.59. On the other hand, I'm hoping to realize a return over the next few to 24-hours by shorting USDCAD.
No such luck. This was a losing trade. In fact, the pair might be reversing sentiment from bearish to bullish. I bought AUDUSD as soon as the employment numbers were released, so I'm hoping this trade will make up the loss with a little bit of icing on top.
One-way traffic in the FX market today Non-stop US dollar selling Adam Button Thursday, 15/06/2023 | 08:54 GMT-7 The dollar bulls haven't had a chance to regroup today. It's been non-stop US dollar selling since New York walked through the door. Some of that might be ECB related but I get the sense that the bigger mover is China as bets on global growth are placed. USD/CAD offers a snapshot of what has been happening today with a one-way 110 pip move lower. Zooming out, you can see the pair now approaching some big levels on the daily chart. A break below the November low would quickly open the way to 1.3000.
EURUSD reaches the next target area Swing area between 1.0933 and 1.0942 is reached Greg Michalowski Thursday, 15/06/2023 | 09:08 GMT-7 The EURUSD has extended to yet another new high end and the process is testing the next target swing area between 1.0933 and 1.0942. I outlined this level in an earlier post/video. The area was a solid floor gone back in time before breaking on May 11 and started the run to the downside that took the price to the low reached on March 31. The sharp move to the upside has the pair moving toward overbought conditions as it moves into the next key target area. Buyers may look to take some profit against the level with a stop above 1.0942. Having said that, a rotation back down to the 61.8% retracement at 1.0919 would need to be broken to give sellers more confidence. Below that getting back below 1.08955 would also be needed to give way to give sellers more control. Absent those types of moves, and the selling here would just be a corrective move and what is a bullish break and bias.
FORECASTING FOR FUN! USDCAD enjoyed a bullish daily price flow for a couple of days, but it looks to be turning over now. However, the main reason I think I'll see the rate come down from 1.3248 is because at that level, price is above a down-sloping four-hour baseline.
AUDJPY is overall bearish, but just barely, and has spent the past few days essentially going nowhere...
I'm going to be retiring for the night, so I've readjusted my levels to pocket about 10 pip's worth of profit...
Somewhere you wrote about introducing the vocabulary along the lines of leading the slope of the price range envelope, following it, or spanning the (more-or-less neutral) price range channel. (At the moment, I can't find where I typed that.) Well, if candlesticks are leading or following the slope of the eight-hour price range envelope at 0.25% deviation, it is a good indication of a strong intraday trend. Likewise if the oscillator belonging to the lower-panel indicator associated with the four-hour baseline is above or below the 0.1172 or -0.1172 levels (though this measure is not as reliable), not to mention if candlesticks are having a hard time forming to the far/off side of the four-hour baseline. Referring to Post #264 in the "Testing the Nadex Beta Platform" thread, you probably have monster momentum supporting an intraday trend when candlesticks are leading the 34-minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation. This corresponds with the slope of the one-hour (54-minute) baseline, as conveyed by the oscillator on the associated lower-panel indicator, being greater or less than 0.05255 or -0.05255. Verify whether this recommends you check what is happening with the 34-minute measure whenever the four-hour measure exceeds the 0.1172 threshold.