I began trading stocks and ETFs in 2007 or 2008, but was unable to take advantage of what I observed in terms of price action due to the Pattern Day Trading Rule and the fact that my account balance was less than $25,000. But, after I moved to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) a couple of years later (2010), I discovered I could get around this hinderance by trading financial derivatives through the North American Derivatives Exchange (NADEX). This was in November of 2011. But the problem there was the outlandish risk/reward structure of the exchange's contracts. Essentially, I was pretty much a break even trader from 2011 to 2015, when I stumbled onto a strategy I called MS. MAE, for Multiple Simple Moving Average Envelopes. This was a profitable Forex day trading system, but I felt I could make it even better and worked on refining it from 2015 to 2017, followed by an effort to take it to the ultimate level from 2017 to 2022. By then, I was calling my system Numerical Price Prediction (NPP), and having finally been satisfied with its application at the intraday level, I shifted my attention to adapting it so that it would work equally as well if used as a pseudo swing trading strategy. Going back and forth between my ultimate day trading charts and my ultimate swing trading charts during the last couple of months led to a merged forecast model I felt was ready to be put to the test. Accordingly, I began trading the end result using my RoboForex $5,000 demo account at the beginning of this month, and was able to generate just under a 40% return on investment (ROI) during the first two-and-a-half weeks of activity… I therefore began using this modified system last week as applied to my Nadex LIVE account, trading the exchange's "knock-outs" (which Nadex began offering a couple of years ago) in place of their (stupid) binary option contracts, given that the former are not characterized by the same ridiculous risk-reward framework as the latter. In this case, I was able to double my opening balance by the end of the week, and therefore intend to continue applying the same methodology going forward, hopefully doubling my working capital every week so that by the end of September, I will have amassed an unspeakable amount of funds. Given that the current protocols are, to this point, working out pretty well, let me use the remaining space to review what I think I see… Ideally, when pseudo swing trading, you want to enter positions that are headed in the same direction as the slope of the 4-day price flow channel–especially if the 16- and 8-hour price range envelopes share the same trajectory. However, the position of price WITHIN the channel is JUST as important as the direction in which the channel is angled. Consequently, if the channel is headed in one direction, but price is positioned all the way on the OTHER/OPPOSITE side of the measure, under most circumstances, it will make more sense to look for an opportunity to enter a position that is CONTRARY to the overall/longer-term trend, or to simply WAIT until price returns to a location that is more conducive to trading WITH the dominant trend. The measure you SHOULD absolutely NEVER oppose from a pseudo swing trading perspective is the four-hour baseline, because this measure does NOT lag in this context. The reason for NOT contradicting the four-hour baseline when pseudo swing trading is because the Forex market is simply too dynamic to trust that it will maintain, from day to day, any of the trends that are GREATER than four hours. More often than not, it simply won't! Since the 16- and 8-hour measures CAN lag behind the initial formation of wholesale/fully-fledged reversals in the day-to-day trend, once again, the LOCATION of candlestick WITHIN their associated price range envelopes is JUST as important as (and probably even MORE important than) the direction these measures are sloping. Conversely, when it comes to intraday trading, one should ideally be seeking to trade in the direction of the slope of the (slightly lagging) eight-hour baseline. (All measures beyond this are, for the most part, of no consequence in this context.) Here, it appears the fastest "actionable" trend is represented by the 15-minute (rather than four-hour) price flow channel, and is made easier to identify by two of the four proprietary 10-minute baselines. (The five-minute measures are not to be trusted, seeing as how they are too unstable in that they suffer from frequent, less-significant fluctuations.) (So then, it would appear that I am no longer using one-minute charts as part of my method of trading.) The broader flow of price at the intraday level, which dictates the optimal direction in which to trade the 15-minute price flow channel, IS conveyed by the four-hour baseline and its associated price range envelope, with the highest-probability trades taking place when the one-hour price flow channel and the two-hour price flow channel are both angled in the same direction as the four-hour measures.
I woke up at around 3:50 AM this morning to find my two open positions in positive territory, but losing ground. So, I think I'll go ahead and pocket the profit that remains available right now...
The Cable-Yen decided to offer me an opportunity to deploy day-trading tactics to earn a few more pips profit...
The markets are kind of like, going nowhere. So, what say we have a little fun? For example, AUDJPY is at the bottom of the eight-hour price range envelope. Isn't it therefore likely to be higher than its current location 12 hours form now? Time will tell...
Revelation... Sure, when it comes to longer-term forecasts, the twelve-day and four-day measures are crucial. Nonetheless, when it comes to SWING trading, it is wise to put a great deal of emphasis on the TWO-DAY baseline... And with respect to this measure, pullbacks to the +14.8 or -14.8 level of the associated lower-panel oscillator are key times to start watching for pullbacks to more typical deviation levels.
As the record pasted below from my Nadex demo account implies, this morning I made a pocket full of change (in my live account) after suffering a small loss from AUDUSD, but two more significant wins from GBPUSD and GBPJPY using scalping tactics... However, I have longer-term hopes in AUDJPY, where I have an open pseudo swing trading position that is counting on a continued ascent from 91.16 over the next 24 hours or so (give or take a few) God willing.