With the U.S. Dollar-Loonie positioned at the bottom of a bullish four-day price flow envelope, it became a prime buy candidate as soon as the four-hour trend turned north and the rate crossed above the six- and nine-hour baselines...
I continue to wait for the six- and nine-hour trend lines to suggest that this pair has had a reversal in its overall day-to-day bias/sentiment. But so far, price continues to push downward, insisting on a southbound trajectory at the bottom of the four-day price flow envelope.
I like the results I've been getting from relying on the forecast models I began using very recently, but I think that in doing so, I might actually be behaving in a somewhat lazy manner. I therefore want to start putting in a little more work and seeing what happens if I try reintroducing some of the measures I used in the past, and adding them to my daily protocol if they turn out to boost the effectiveness of my system. I plan to begin my plotting horizontal lines on each of the chart configurations I use most often to to mark the projected day range for each new 24-hour market cycle.
The USA Inflation Rate numbers sent AUDUSD up to the first of two eight-hour resistance levels and the second of three four-hour resistance levels. This suggested a heightened statistical probability that the rate would be turning south sometime in the not-too-distant future. As it turns out, it happened relatively quickly, so I plan to pocket my gains from this short position as soon as I finish typing this entry...
Let me conduct a little trial on a simple strategy called "The Four-hour Cloud." This tactic would have me buy USDJPY at 134.65.
The Four-hour Cloud is on the brink of recommending the purchase of EURJPY. Moreover, the four-hour forecast model sees the rate bouncing off the base of a neutral four-day price range channel at the first of three statistical support levels, suggesting that the odds are better than even price will rise from 147.10. UPDATE...
This observation, posted last Saturday, forecast an eventually fall for the pair. That reversal south occurred toward the end of Monday's 24-market cycle and into Tuesday. However, price rose again on Wednesday, and then fell dramatically Thursday, and has continued to fall today. In other words, AUDUSD spent part of Tuesday, all of Wednesday, and part of Thursday acting as if it might not reach the level where it is now and was "expected" to go. Hence, it took the entire week for the Aussie dollar-U.S. dollar to fully execute the maneuver my forecast models implied it would perform.
Friday's early observations, before the closing bell of the New York session... The Euro pairs look to be initiating fully-fledged reversals in their overall day-to-day price flows, from bullish to bearish. The Aussie pairs are approaching the three support levels associated with the four-day price flow, suggesting that they are likely to become strong buy candidates some time next week, or the week that follows at the latest. Though EURGBP is overall bearish, the eight- and 16-hour baselines are presently bullish, recommending the adoption of long positions if and when price positions itself near the base of the eight- and/or 16-hour price flow envelope(s).
Though USDJPY is looking at a bullish four-day price flow, for all practical purposes, it's nearly neutral. But as for things from a more immediate perspective, price has reached the top of its bearish 16-hour price range, as well as the second (i.e., extreme) resistance level of its eight-hour price range. Accordingly, come next week, I will be on the lookout for the formation of price structure more-or-less configured to support a short position. Watch USDCHF over the next couple of weeks to determine (and then verify) if the trek south, which began on March 9, 2023, has come to an end (at least for the foreseeable future). If GBPJPY, which is overall bullish, keeps falling toward the base of its northbound four-day price range envelope, like the Aussie pairs, it is likely to configure a very favorable price structure for a long position. Though the Euro pairs appear to be turning south, EURUSD has dropped so low that it is likely to eventually become an extremely strong buy candidate, despite the bearish sentiment of the overall price flow. It has already broken first level statistical support at 1.0869, with the next level at 1.0785, and the most extreme level at 1.0731.