AUDUSD took a dive at 1:00 AM PDT, but at least I minimized my loss by making a successful 15-minute trade at the same time I purchased the eight-hour contract...
Aside from my first AUDUSD trade, today's activity had as its central purpose the gathering of data, to be use to help formulate a plan for entering the market at almost any time of the day and generating profit through the purchase of 15- (or 30-) minute binary option contracts. This is why most stakes were for only $1, $2 or $5. I am encouraged by the fact that even though the task today was that of research (the gathering of information) the result of the day's performance was nonetheless to finish this 24-hour market cycle in the black...
The activity from the last 24-hour market cycle made the above plan pretty clear. So now, I'm going back to focusing on my book, except that I'm going to skip ahead several chapters and explain the development of everything I'm dong NOW. Then I will go back and finish the earlier chapters, making modifications in accordance with what my ultimate views and protocols turned out to be.
This is a very cool task. You can know how to do something, but when you go through the process of synthesizing and clarifying it in preparation for teaching it to others, it enhances your grasp and mastery of the topic—taking it to a higher level—even when it's something you created yourself.
The 16-hour price range envelope can vascillate toward and then away from the "three-" day baseline quite often, so though EURJPY and EURGBP did eventually drop, such moves were not necessarily sustained. I'm therefore thinking it would be better to watch for reversals on the far side of the two-day-sixteen-hour price range envelope instead of the 16-hour measure.
Had you already plotted the two-day-sixteen-hour baseline on your four-hour charts back when you carried out this initial analysis, you would have anticipated the likelihood that the Pound-Yen would ultimately head south, and NOT north.
The eight-hour trend often reverses direction in the vicinity of two-day-sixteen-hour price range envelope at 1.65% deviation, but then jumps to 4.00% deviation under extreme conditions. SATURDAY | MARCH 25, 2023 Based on the above forecast model (if valid) I should see AUDUSD reverse north anywhere between its present location (0.6643) and 0.6571 (under typical conditions). Three pairs are presently at statistical support, and consequently, could see price rise, even though they are (very) bearish. They are: AUDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY. It is expected that EURUSD will ultimately turn north, especially if it drops down between 1.0759 and 1.0550. GBPUSD is in a similar situation. ANECDOTAL OBSERVATION: When four-hour candlesticks are trending, as confirmed by the eight-hour baseline, rarely does one see two "mis-colored" candlesticks paint in a row. Consequently, at the close of such a candle (IF this observation is valid), a four-hour binary option contract purchased in the direction of the trend should be in-the-money at expiry more often than not.
If you take the above configuration to one-hour charts, you can add four- and eight-hour price range envelopes to track more granular moves. Here, you will often see a reluctance of one-hour candlesticks to paint beyond the eight-hour price range envelope at 0.50% deviation (or 0.90% deviation under more extreme conditions).