In carrying out the above task, I noticed a "flow" with a longer outlook than one day. My rough estimate is that it is something like a two-day-sixteen-hour current, with price often reversing direction near the sixteen-hour price range envelope on the far side of this measure's slope. This is what EURJPY did 12 hours ago, so I want to see how long it continues to head south. EURGBP did the same thing yesterday, but headed south for only 16 hours. It is on the far side of a down-sloping ≈ three-day baseline once again, but has not turned south yet, so I will be watching to see if it does (or if the two-day-sixteen-hour baseline turns north instead). (The day-to-day trend is suggested by the six- to eight-hour baselines...much faster than the two-day-sixteen-hour measure.)
AUDJPY reversed south after briefly crossing to the far side of a down-sloping (approximately) three-day baseline around 24 hours ago, but that lasted for only eight hours. It has since been climbing again for the last 12 hours. EURJPY did so for only eight hours, but has been climbing again for the last eight hours, so this particular forecast model would continue to expect the pair to eventually drop below the down-sloping (approximately) three-day baseline sometime within the next few days. EURGBP has spent the last 12 hours more-or-less treading water. GBPJPY has begun heading north, as forecast, so I'm watching to see if it follows through on this move. UPDATE: Looking at a five-minute chart, one could argue that the go ahead to buy the Pound-Yen was observable four hours ago. In any event, I just purchased a call contract with expiry set at 12 hours from now, so I will check then to see if the pair is in-the-money once the hour arrives. (I have also purchase an eight-hour USDJPY call contract becuase: (1) the rate has turned north; and (2) price is located in the lower region of what is currently a rather neutral 16-hour price range envelope.) USDCHF performed this maneuver 16 hours ago and is still on an (overall) downward trajectory, but that's no surprise given that the 16-hour trend is also bearish. UPDATE: With the release of the CHF SNB Policy Rate five minutes ago, it's now not just the overall trajectory that is bearish given that the present four-hour candlestick has now turned red as well.
From 5:54 AM to 6:26 AM Pacific Daylight Savings Time, though my forecast model suggested that the pair would rise, GBPJPY refused to go anywhere, seemingly waiting for the opening bell of the New York session, at which point, the pair finally came to life. However, in a sense, it still went nowhere, bouncing up and down dramatically within a somewhat well-defined range. Whether or not it will be above 161.60 at expiry several hours from now, as I concluded it would be when I purchased a call contract several hours ago, remains to be seen...
GBPJPY elected NOT to maintain a trajectory in sync with its bullish day-to-day baseline, so that the possible scenario suggested by my four-hour chart configuration failed to become a reality. Fortunately, a number of other trades fared much better...
EURJPY is riding the lower band of the eight-hour price range envelope south, with statistical support for the (roughly) two-and-a-half day price range not far below at around 140.38. Accordingly, if the intraday trend reverses direction north somewhere in that vicinity, I'll have to give serious consideration to entering a long position (even though the pair is now overall bearish) given the vast amount of room up above for the rate to climb. (In fact, there are a number of other bearish pairs whose candlesticks are nearing or bouncing off statistical support as well.) EURUSD is extremely bullish, so it too is a serious buy candidate if and when its intraday trend turns north, likewise for EURGBP, which is very bullish, and ditto for AUDUSD, which is only slightly bullish, but is already painting candlesticks in the lower half of its day range.
Thursday | March 23, 2023 | 10:00 PM PDT AUDUSD appears as if it is trying to turn north. So, let me see what happens if I purchase an eight-hour binary option call contract.