GBPUSD already fulfilled the above forecast by gapping up approximately 26 pips at the open, from 1.2175 to 1.2201. In the five hours since then, price once again descended, as low as 1.2167, so that the previous forecast is back in play. Though it spent the last five or six hours headed south, IF it is to maintain its overall trajectory, one would expect it to eventually reverse course (and to do so in short order) and head north once again.
All six of the trades I made in my Nadex demo account at the start of this week have been successful, which leads me to conclude that the decision not to make any more changes on my chart configurations and simply focus on learning to interpret them correctly has put me on solid footing for applying them with some degree of competence going forward...
My charts remain essentially the same. However, there is nonetheless what I regard as greater and greater clarity as to (and shifting in) how much weight to assign the various measures plotted on my "forecast models," and in turn, the absolute best setups for entering positions. But, unlike in the past, I find myself inclined to record these "insights" (anecdotal observations) in my personal notes ONLY, and to omit them from any of my threads. I think this is because things have evolved so that it's no longer a way to help me "figure out" what works best, but is now a matter of spelling out the fundamental, unchanging "laws" of NPP that will underpin profitable trades going forward.
At 4:30 AM PDT the Forex market "feels" kind of "dead" to me right now. And I wouldn't be surprised to see it pretty much remain so until 11:00 AM PDT, when the USA FOMC Economic Projections are released.
I just "transposed" my favorite daily chart to a four-hour configuration and am looking forward to trying my hand at interpreting the result. However, given the USA FOMC Economic Projection announcement in 30 minutes, now is NOT the time to start.
The slope of GBPJPY's dynamic/adjustable projected daily price range envelope suggests the pair is ultimately headed higher. Consequently, if and when the four-hour trend reverses direction and heads north, the asset will become a strong buy candidate—especially if this occurs below the center of the estimated domain/price distribution (i.e., the 160.79 neighborhood or lower). The next four-hour candlestick will begin painting on this chart at 2:00 PM PDT, so I need to check back at that hour, followed by 6:00 PM and 10:00 PM.
USDCHF is bearish, but the rate is nearing the lower band of the dynamic/adjustable projected daily price range envelope. It therefore strikes me as sensible to buy the pair if and when the four-hour trend reverses it sentiment from bearish to bullish, making this pair a tentative buy candidate under the above conditions.
Wednesday | March 22, 2023 | 7:30 PM PDT GBPJPY is now in the above-mentioned neighborhood! A tentative "law" that you just might want to commit to memory is that the four-hour baseline often reverses direction in the proximity of the upper or lower band of the eight-hour price range envelope at 0.85% to 1.35% deviation. It just so happens that this is where GBPJPY is presently located, so keep a close eye on the pair for your signal to "pull the trigger." P.S. Look into the possibility that the 16-hour price range envelope works even better than the eight...