I actually SOLD USDJPY rather than buy it, so I'm not sure what I was looking at when I made the above forecast. (I tend NOT to paste my charts in my posts anymore since my system is no longer in development, and I'm not inclined to reveal that much information for free.) It says "from a four-hour perspective," but even my four-hour chart was bearish. They only place I see a bullish sentiment now is when I look at the four-day price flow on my daily charts. In any event, I sold the pair last night shortly after 10:30 PM PST (see the arrow below). That bearish leg of its journey ultimately offered approximately 30 pips of profit, but I only banked about half that much, at which point, the rate began to experience a bit of turbulence, causing me to pocket my gains and go to bed—not to mention that by that time, the four-hour measures had turned bullish... Oh, I see! After rereading the quoted text above, I recall that LANDFALL was headed north, but the four-hour baseline was headed south. Accordingly, the plan was to buy AFTER the four-hour measure turned north to rejoin the bullish longer-term bias, which it has now done. So only NOW is USDJPY a buy candidate. At the time I sold the pair, selling was still the "proper" thing to do. My move at this hour (a couple of minutes ago) was to buy EURJPY.
At this point, I have only one main scenario (or structure) that serves as a prime potential trade setup, which is when the River Current and/or Local Canal are flowing in one direction, and the intraday trend channel and short-term trend lines pull back in the opposite direction The reason I no longer have TWO main scenarios is because I am pulling what I originally described… which is to say: following reversals in the intraday trend if and when rates meander to the "wrong" side of the Landfall measures. This is because the Landfall measures are too lagging, so that what might APPEAR to be a pullback could OFTEN turn out to be a full-fledged reversal, and it is going to take too long to verify or confirm whether or not this is so.
The above tactic is especially effective if ONLY executed when the slope of the the Local Canal (as represented by the lower panel histogram on a five-minute chart) is above 0.04 or below -0.04...
NOTE: Things got "active" this morning shortly before 5:00 AM PST, around 4:50 AM to be a bit more precise. Times to note today are pasted below, but ForexFactory uses the East Coast time zone, so for me here in Los Angeles County, the times to watch were 5:15 AM and 7:00 AM.
It is not unusual for the Aussie and/or Yen pairs to come to life at 4:00 AM Pacific Standard Time, so you (I) might want to make a habit of monitoring your laptop at that time each day in case one or more of these assets offers an opportunity to take advantage of a pronounced move in one direction or the other.
At one time you were [I was] going back and forth, wrestling with whether the hard and fast rule to NEVER trade against the 20-minute baseline was a valid stipulation. That question was resolved in this way: Rather than refer to the 20-minute baseline, the better measure to consult is the 20-minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation (i.e., the intraday "stream"). So then yes, one DOES want to be trading in the direction matching the slope of the stream, but with the caveat that the ONLY time one enters a position is when the faster trend lines have pulled back in the opposite direction. Then again, this only applies when market conditions are not too extreme. When volatility and liquidity are pronounced, the 20-minute measures are apt to be lagging well behind price. Accordingly, under such conditions traders will need to wait for pullbacks to the "far" side of the 8½-minute price range envelope at 0.07% deviation rather than the 20-minute channel. (I'm going to start calling this the "causeway" rather than the intraday trend channel.) You have also ceased to wonder about plotting the 40-minute baseline on your charts, having finally settled on a jump from the 20-minute price range envelope up to 50 minutes to an hour (i.e., the "river current"); and with the next jump being from the three-and-three-quarters hour price range envelope up to four hours. (Any measures beyond [slower than] four hours are essentially irrelevant with respect to intraday trading.) So then, you're [I am] going to have to modify your terms, so that the four-hour price range envelope becomes the "ocean flow," and the eight-hour price range envelope will only be referred to as the "global belt."