Hi Expiated, Your chart in this post is very similar to the way I trade. I think it might be helpful if the momentum oscillator at the bottom of the chart was adjusted so it matched the high and low extremes of price movement a bit better, though. Several of the stochastics-type indicators with their parameters set right seem to do this pretty well, e.g., Stochastics, StochasticRSI, Ehlers Stochastics, etc. The same chart shown in your post created using a different lower indicator is shown below. When the EMA is up (blue) and the momentum indicator is at or coming from an extreme low, these seem to be good buy signals (see arrows).
At of the present, USDJPY has yet to make a move south in any significant way. The same goes for EURGBP.
Actually, this is an incomplete setup. Contrary to what I thought, the rate did not pull back until about 17 hours ago. However, the day-to-day trend is now bearish. Nonetheless, at I am still looking to buy the pair (currently at 0.9194) because price is very near to making contact with the support zone.
Making Forecasts... As I've written in the past, Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) is compatible with Edgar Peters' fractal market hypothesis, which views financial markets as fractal in the sense that they follow cyclical and replicable patterns consisting of fragmented shapes that break down into parts, which then replicate the shape of the whole. Accordingly, using NPP to make forecasts with respect to foreign currency pairs involves the evaluation of a number of parts and an analysis of how they might all fit together to form a whole. Consequently, terminology is required to distinguish between one part and another, and toward that end, I will be using the following to represent the various components of the system comprising the associated forecast models. (Since NPP is no longer in development, this is part of an ongoing process to arrive at a final [or standard] protocol [or routine] for constructing market forecasts.) landfall: the ultimate directional destination of price in terms of the foreseeable future; recognized as being in the northern hemisphere if a pair is bullish, the southern hemisphere if a pair is bearish, or equatorial if a pair is neutral; (from a day-to-day perspective, landfall is conveyed by the "global belt," which is to say, by the four-day price range envelope) ocean currents: because NPP also incorporates the idea of cycle theory, which holds that cyclical forces, both long and short, drive price movements and can be used to anticipate turning points; this term will be used to reference where price is headed in relation to the broadest swaths of area, or belts, being traversed by the longest cyclical forces observed over the entire domain of potential values, with the turning points between the upper and lower boundaries of this "global belt" identified as either: the northern shoreline or the southern shoreline; (again, from a day-to-day perspective, ocean currents are more-or-less defined by the projected or typical maximum length of four-hour candlesticks) river currents: this term references where price is headed in relation to the intermediate swaths of area, or channels, being traversed by cyclical forces within the longer (or longest) cyclical forces, with the turning points between the upper and lower boundaries of the associated envelope identified as: the upper riverbank or the lower riverbank (Note that projected or potential turning points are also regarded as levels of "statistical" support or resistance.) local canal: this is the immediate directional tendency (or general overall gist) of price flow in the now (or in the moment) with the "actionable" price range envelope often oscillating between its upper and lower bands (typically when rates evidence little to no trending); in the context of the daily forecast, it consists of the hourly baseline and its associated envelope, which is plotted by calculating the projected maximum length of one-hour candlesticks (price) stream: this is the immediate actionable price range envelope, based on the 20- to 25-minute measures intraday trend channel(s): the eight- to nine-minute (and/or possibly 10- to 13-minute) price range envelope(s) short term trend lines: these moving averages trace the fluctuations of price within the intraday trend channel(s)—typically used to pinpoint entry and exit levels—and vary from two- to five-minutes For now, landfall is projected to be in the norther hemisphere with respect to EURJPY, GBPJPY, USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY. The southern hemisphere is currently projected for AUDUSD, EURUSD and GBPUSD. Though technically, AUDJPY is just a tad bit bullish, for the moment, I'm considering its landfall to be equatorial, along with EURGBP. I regard price action as being much too dynamic to make specific swing trade style forecasts. Accordingly, let me just say that in a general sense, I intend to enter positions following reversals in the intraday trend if and when rates meander to the "wrong" side of the landfall measures; which consist of the three-and-a-half to four-day price range envelopes and their associated baselines. But of course, this is not the only structure I'm watching for as a potential opportunity for making a trade. Nonetheless, it is IS the only one that applies for now.
I'm probably going to reverse my terms and rename the two measures as the Ocean Flow and the River Current. I need to give them differing colors as well. Also, turning points at the Northern Shoreline and Southern Shoreline are parts of the Ocean Flow and NOT part of the Global Belt, whose upper and lower limits I'm likely to refer to as Universal Support and Universal Resistance, at least for now.
Actually, the Ocean Flow is formed by the eight-hour price range envelope, and it is the River Current that is more-or-less defined by the projected or typical maximum length of four-hour candlesticks. And the term below should have been underlined and printed using black text... intraday trend channel(s): the eight- to nine-minute (and/or possibly 10- to 13-minute) price range envelope(s) If we drill down to an even faster time frame, you might notice that even at this "micro" level, rather than using the fluctuating moving averages I mentioned above, I have taken to employing their associated adaptive price action channels instead...