It's more likely than not that at least a couple of pairs in my morning's portfolio, such as EURJPY and EURUSD, are eventually going to climb much higher. Nonetheless, I'm going to lock in all my gains now (while all five of my positions are in profit territory) and leave whatever additional potential returns might have become available later on, on the table. I have three reasons for doing this... First, I'm going to be out and about for the rest of the day, and I do not like having open positions when I am unable to monitor market activity on an ongoing basis. Second, it is typically at around this time that all the air seeps out of the Forex market, leaving very little momentum to push price to where it might ultimately want to go, making it easy for positions to lose ground and for big players to conduct their shenanigans due to the lack of liquidity. And finally, I do not like to have trades on between the hours of 10:00 PM to 11:00 PM London time, given that I often observe extremely bizarre price action during this time span, and have no idea what might happen.
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 6, 2022 (Copied and pasted from thoughts shared with interests outside of ET) This is not exactly the best day for trading. It looks like a number of the currency pairs COULD be in the initial stages of reversing their day-to-day trends. Nonetheless, I will do my best to earn a profit, even on a day like today. However, it might be several hours before the market evidences the right structure for me to do so. Later... My charts are suggesting to me that EURGBP, USDCAD and USDCHF are in the initial stages of turning north; whereas EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPJPY and GBPUSD are at an early period in the process of reversing south. This is in terms of the day-to-day trend. (AUDJPY, AUDUSD and USDJPY are more-or-less neutral.) This means that I will must wait several hours, if not over a day, before I can enter positions in the direction of the trend. (Their prices have advanced too far within their typical price ranges for me to be able to justify acting now, without first waiting for their rates to pull back significantly.) I could enter positions in the direction of the 20-minute baseline as soon as it reverses course (for just a short while) but this is risky business. Nonetheless, that is exactly what I am opting to do with respect to GBPJPY. My justification is that the rate is so low within its typical price range that the statistical probability of price resuming a southbound trajectory is far less than the odds of its continuing north, at least for a while. Later still... I am buying three addition pairs for the same reasons: GBPUSD, EURJPY and EURUSD If they DO turn right back around and start heading south again, I will have to abandon all four positions for a loss. But God willing, hopefully that will not be necessary. Right now, the BIG question is: "Is there still enough 'juice' left in the market at this hour to push them higher? Almost done... I considered exiting all four positions when price surged twenty minutes ago for a modest overall profit, but elected not to do so because rates could go significantly higher. But, now I wish I had, because the pairs have pulled back significantly. Now I'm going to have to wait "forever" for them to get back to where they were before, IF ever. Should they happen to do so, I will lock in my gains this time and call it a day. Done... Yes, I'm afraid all the air HAS gone out of the market, making this a rather dismal day in terms of performance. I'm going to have to be satisfied with what essentially amounts to breaking even, with rates pretty much unable to return to their recent local highs, and me unwilling to sit around for an eternity hoping that they do...
THURSDAY | October 13, 2022 EURUSD, which has been heading south ever since October 6, 2022, has reversed course today and has begun heading north. So, I will be looking to buy the pair as soon as it pulls back to a support level. Look to buy GBPUSD under the same condition a well.
Friday | October 21, 2022 | 7:30 AM PST Expectations... I expect to see AUDJPY come down from 95.31 AUDUSD to fall from 62.88 EURUSD from 0.9777 GBPJPY to descend from 169.04 And USDCHF to climb from 1.0082
AUDUSD got a "second wind" and only after tagging 0.6378 did it begin to show any "real" signs of possibly beginning to tucker out. EURUSD behaved in a similar fashion, as did USDCHF, except in the opposite direction.