Again, speaking of daily charts, EURUSD has been more-or-less bouncing around between 1.0112 and 1.02784 for 20 days now. Nonetheless, the 12- and 40-day baselines are still decidedly bearish. (The six-day baseline turned north six days ago.) Candlesticks climbed a bit higher than usual on Wednesday and Thursday, but were descending again on Friday. However, the two-day baseline is still angled a little bit north, so it would be foolish to sell as of yet. The bottom line is...watch for the two-day (especially if joined by the four-day) baseline to turn south. If this happens, the pair might resume the descent it initiated in June of last year, never to return to the 1.0374 level again for the foreseeable future. USDCHF = weekly support violation USDJPY = 40-day baseline errant son AUDUSD = weekly resistance violation GBPUSD = 40-day baseline errant son EURUSD = 12-day baseline errant son
DAILY ROUTING (THUS FAR): Check the weekly charts ("weekly price range" configuration) to see if any of rate is above or below the projected weekly price range. (This does not mean that a reversal is imminent, but it might mean that a dramatic reversal could occur if stimulated by related economic data.) View the daily charts ("wrong half of the channel" configuration) to see if any of the currency pairs is evidencing a hook (reversal) at the top or bottom of the six-day or 12-day price range. (If the reversal follows through, it could mean several days of a committed/continued trend.) Refer to the daily charts ("projected day ranges" configuration) to see if any rates have climbed above or crawled below the projected daily price range and to form an impression as to the direction in which each asset is currently headed from a day-to-day perspective. My impression of who is rising... AUDJPY Is AUDUSD still rising or is it trying to roll over? USDJPY My impression of who is falling... EURJPY EURUSD (new decline) GBPJPY GBPUSD My impression of who is neutral... EURGBP USDCAD USDCHF
Sunday | August 1, 2022 | 11:30 PM PST So far, the three pairs that were expected to fall are doing so—AUDUSD in dramatic fashion... USDCHF is rising, as anticipated, but USDJPY is not. The U.S. dollar-Japanese yen has a bearish six-day baseline, and the 12-day measure is neutral. The four-day baseline is bearish, but the two-day is neutral...so things could go either way with this pair. I have opted to short AUDJPY and EURJPY in my Nadex demo account via knock-outs, looking for a payout of about $13 in one case, and $15 in the other. I am testing the waters in that these are the kinds of trades I anticipate making when I go live on Wednesday, provided that actually happens. UPDATE: I'm going to cash in on AUDJPY at $11.00 of profit...
In fact, AUDUSD fell to such a degree that the rate is now below the projected daily price range... So, I will now be looking for opportunities to buy the pair.
Based on the behavior of this pair and others, for the time being, I will be using the 56-minute baseline for confirmation of intraday reversals.
So, after the developments of the first 24-hour market cycle this week, here are my fresh impressions of who is rising, falling or neutral based on my one-day projected price range charts: My impression of who is rising... USDCAD (Switched directions) USDCHF (Switched directions) USDJPY My impression of who is falling... AUDJPY (Switched directions) AUDUSD (Yes, this pair did roll over.) EURJPY EURUSD (The new decline is now a continuing decline.) GBPJPY GBPUSD My impression of who is neutral... EURGBP (Remains so) USDCAD USDCHF Looking at the daily "wrong half of the channel" configuration, AUDUSD—presently in the upper regions of the six-day price range—has plenty of room for a prolonged descent if it chooses to go that route (seeing as how the 40-day trend is bearish). Consequently, the pair will be a strong candidate for a short position when/if the two-day baseline turns south. (40-day baseline errant son strategy) The exact opposite scenario is in play with respect to USDCHF. If it indeed bounced off statistical support provided by the bottom of the six-day price range on Thursday, it has plenty of room up above to climb given its bullish 40-day baseline.
Monday / August 15, 2022 | 3:05 PM PST As I review old information, I'm increasingly forming the impression that the most effective tactics are going to be based on really simple charts. For example, as of today, my favorite chart has nothing more than the 56-, 20- and 6-minute baselines plotted on it, along with the 45-minute temporal support/resistance channel. This is all I need to clearly see in which direction price is headed, the optimal levels from which to enter positions, and prudent spots where it makes sense to get out. And now, I'm also liking a setup where all I'm painting on the chart is the eight-hour price range envelope and the two-hour price range envelope. The latter measure makes it crystal clear when rates are climbing, falling or neutral; and almost without question, getting in on the "contrary" side of this indicator when it and the eight-hour measure are both angled in the same direction is going to inevitably lead to a profitable outcome.
I have four pseudo-swing style trades pending, based on medium-range projections in the eight-hour trend rather than on in-the-moment data. They are AUDJPY, EURGBP, USDCAD and USDCHF. I'm very interested to see how this plays out. Theoretically, I should not have any expectation that they will end successfully given the NPP recommends never trying to anticipate what the market will do, but ONLY interpret what the market IS doing.
Tuesday / August 16, 2022 | 1:30 AM PST Something is wrong here... The USD/CHF position should be showing at least $17 of profit. What's more, when I set a take-profit target at its current price, it will not execute the payout. When I try to close the position, the "Place Order" button is inactive. I should be able to close all my positions for a net gain of about $13.00, but this demo platform seems to be "buggy." GBPJPY seems to be going in the "wrong" direction at the moment. So, I am going to sell it and see what happens in the end.