Current Value: US$90733.99x1.26463=S$114,744.92 Commentary: The fund has hit a bit of a bad patch, particularly with traders speculating of a revival of the Europe crisis led by Spain and China's slowdown (to 7%, yes, 7%, and everyone's panicking - what if it slows to 5%?). I'm still holding out for positive economic growth and "development linked" commodities heading higher. Others: I've just touched home and I'm absolutely exhausted - got cramps over night yesterday, I'm not sure why, first time in years. I too tired and wasn't in the mood to update this journal, but because the fund is down quite a bit these 1-2 days, I felt it is important to record this fall. I'll be back next week, posting from the deserts up north.
Current Value: US$91203.51x1.26192=S$115,091.53 Commentary: No good news in sight, as we still see weakness in the global economy. I managed to get 2 seconds on bloomberg of MF Global and Jon Corzine. I've not expressed my views on this before, but this matter is close to the hearts of small and medium sized traders. We have a tough enough time making money without the brokers squirrelling and making bets on our money, and losing it! I pray, together with all honest traders, that the iron fist of justice will come down on those at fault, regardless of their background (whether ex-Goldman or otherwise). They should be kicked out of finance, and stay out forever. Market making and brokering is simple and steady business. Why can't these companies do such a simple thing? Others: Had a restful weekend, but I can feel I need to calm down. I skipped the trip up north. The suns shining, its truly spring now. I've an upcoming trip down to the equator later this week.
This article caught my eye. I made similar bets but while they turned out to be losing bets, I do not consider them 'wrong'. Hedge Funds Make Wrong-Way Bets for a Fourth Week: Commodities By Joe Richter - Mar 26, 2012 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...g-way-bets-for-a-fourth-week-commodities.html Hedge funds wagered the wrong way on commodity prices for a fourth consecutive week, boosting bullish holdings just before reports showing a contraction in manufacturing from China to Europe drove prices lower. Money managers lifted net-long positions in 18 U.S. futures and options by 2.9 percent to 1.17 million contracts in the week ended March 20, Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. The Standard & Poorâs GSCI Spot Index of 24 raw materials dropped 1 percent last week, led by declines in lead and corn. Orange juice tumbled 11 percent, the most since August. The S&P GSCI fell to a three-week low on March 22 after reports showed factory output in Germany and France shrank in March and a measure of Chinaâs manufacturing was the weakest since November. U.S. government data the next day showed new home purchases unexpectedly fell last month, increasing investor concerns about the durability of the worldâs largest economy. âThere are headwinds to growth right now, and therefore there are headwinds to commodities,â said Walter âBuckyâ Hellwig, who helps manage $17 billion of assets at BB&T Wealth Management in Birmingham, Alabama. The MSCI All-Country World Index of shares fell 1.1 percent last week, with about $607 million erased from the value of global equities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The dollar retreated 0.6 percent against a basket of six major trading partners, and Treasuries returned 0.4 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows. Corn, Coffee Eighteen of the 24 raw materials tracked by S&P fell last week. Corn tumbled 3.9 percent, the most since mid-January, as improving U.S. weather boosted the outlook for crops. Arabica coffee declined to the lowest since October 2010 on March 22 on signs of expanding output from Brazil, the worldâs top grower. Corn fell 0.4 percent today and coffee dropped 0.1 percent. A preliminary reading in a Chinese purchasing managersâ index from HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics dropped to 48.1 this month. Readings below 50 signal contraction. A gauge of euro-region manufacturing fell to 47.7 in March from 49 in February, Markit said March 22. Chinaâs steel output is slowing as the economy focuses more on consumers than large infrastructure projects, Ian Ashby, president of iron ore at BHP Billiton Ltd., the biggest mining company, said March 20. Rio Tinto Group, the second-biggest iron-ore exporter, also sees a slowdown in China, David Joyce, the London-based companyâs managing director of expansion projects, told a conference in Perth, Australia the same day. âPetrifiedâ Speculators âThe general concern of a slowdown in China has petrified market speculators,â Chad Morganlander, a Florham Park, New Jersey-based money manager at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees more than $115 billion in assets. âA deceleration in demand from major economies like China will continue to be a thematic concern for investors.â Forecasting moves in commodity markets has become more difficult as price swings have increased, said Peter Sorrentino, a fund manager who helps oversee $14.5 billion at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati. The 15-day historical volatility on the S&P GSCI was near the highest in two months last week, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Demand for some raw materials may rebound as Chinaâs government adds to stimulus measures to shore up growth, Morgan Stanley analysts led by New York-based Hussein Allidina said in a March 18 report. China Lending The Peopleâs Bank of China lowered the requirement for reserves at large banks in February for the second time since November to spur lending. The nation decided last week to boost rural credit by cutting reserve ratios for more branches of Agricultural Bank of China Ltd., the nationâs third-biggest lender by market value. While Chinaâs growth will slow to 8.3 percent in 2012 from 9.2 percent last year, the expansion will rebound to 8.6 percent in 2013, according to the median of 19 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Premier Wen Jiabao cut the countryâs annual growth target to 7.5 percent earlier this month, the lowest since 2004. China is the worldâs biggest energy user and consumes about 40 percent of its copper. Sales of previously owned U.S. houses held in February near an almost two-year high, a report from the National Association of Realtors showed March 21. Two days later, the government reported that new home sales dropped in February for a second straight month, a sign that the housing recovery may be uneven. Investment Flows Investors pulled $127 million out of commodity funds in the week ended March 21, according to Cambridge, Massachusetts-based EPFR Global, which tracks investment flows. Money managers boosted bets on a copper rally by 20 percent to the highest since August even as prices last week fell by the most in five weeks, the CFTC data show. Inventories monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange have more than doubled this year, signaling slowing Chinese demand. Lead dropped 5.4 percent to $1,995 a metric ton in London last week, the biggest decline since December. Corn tumbled 3.9 percent to $6.465 a bushel in Chicago, the most since mid-January. TD Securities Inc. cut its 2012 price forecasts for most precious and industrial metals last week, citing âdiminishing China growth expectations,â Bart Melek, the Toronto-based head of commodity strategy, said in a report March 23. âWith China deteriorating, Europe in recession and the U.S. recovery looking uncertain, the picture for commodities is bearish,â said Steve Mathews, the chief investment officer of Flintlock Capital Asset Management LLC in New York, which has $116 million in assets under management. âI donât see a lot of impetus right now for commodities to go higher.â To contact the reporter on this story: Joe Richter in New York at jrichter1@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net
Current Value: US$91598.19x1.25605=S$115,051.91 Commentary: Generally commodities have slided downwards. The pain for me comes from positions in Natural Gas have been wallopped and it has been painful. Otherwise, shorts in other commodities softened the blow and pretty much balanced off the longs. This is the beauty of a 'hedge' fund. The not so beautiful part is that when the market goes up, your shorts apply the brakes! Overall, I am heading for a small loss for March 2012. Others: Have posted less frequently, and looking at the Current Value, hardly anything happened over the past 3 days since my last post. I am slowly getting a better idea how I will use this online journal. I'm travelling again down south tonight.
March 2012 Performance and Overall Report Current Value: US$89437.19x1.25805=S$112,516.46 Commentary: I had expected a small loss for this month of March, but over the past few hours, my short positions in Wheat took a rough beating. For the day, Wheat was up a jawdropping 7.94%. So were other grains such as Corn (6.62%) and Soy (3.62%), which I did not have positions in. Together with my long Natural Gas positions, it made for a miserable March loss of -2.88%, the worst monthly performance since I started this fund. It is ironic that the month I decided to start this journal in public, after 2 excellent Jan and Feb months, I fail to repeat my past performance. Nevertheless, I am still well in positive territory for the 8 months since I opened this account, although rather disappointed with the performance. Aug: +7.11% Sep: +0.15% Oct: -2.64% Nov: -1.09% Dec: +1.45% Jan: +4.60% Feb: +4.32% Mar: -2.88% Since Inception: +11.05% Food for thought: GSCI is down -1.17% since Aug 2011. I intend to take a break in May, and think carefully whether I want to increase funds in commodities or remain the same and move more to equities (which have been doing better, at least for 1Q 2012).
Current Value: US$92229.34x1.25101=S$115,409.13 Commentary: The bounce back up of 2.52% virtually eliminated last month's last day grains frenzy, with better news across the board globally, helping in my long positions (Wheat is still weak though, I may be exiting this position soon, resigned to the fact that I missed the train). This volatility underscores the importance of not panicking when the going gets rough (not easy!) and not getting excited when the money falls from the sky without effort (not easy!) Increasingly, I don't really find this day to day tracking that useful to me, and even less useful (and potentially hazardous) to readers of my journal, particularly novice traders. Others: After the weekend in the tropics, where my joints are less prone to jams when I wake up, and where there are picturesque blue skies and lush green forests, I will probably head back north tonight. The temperatures there are around 7-18C, it makes waking up much more difficult than when the temperature is 30C. *There was a slight error in March performance after I completed final calculations. The performance was -2.84%, not -2.88% (Current Value closed at S$112,570.11). This forum doesn't allow me to edit any posts I previously made, so I will just re-report correctly next month.
maybe an elaboration of your strategy (technical or fundamentally based) would spark some interest in this thread..... ..also some of your thoughts on where you think certain commodities are headed would also help.. subbed anyway...
Part of the reason why I'm paying to hedge my fund in Singapore dollars. PUBLISHED APRIL 14, 2012 Singapore, the future Swiss franc market for Asia SINGAPORE - A flurry of foreign fundraising, including a rare high-yield chinese bond, has put the spotlight on Singapore's growing role in the global debt capital markets. The city-state was buzzing with new deals again this week, underscoring Singapore's viability as an alternative to the US dollar market, with S$8.7billion (US$7billion) issued so far this year. "It's getting to be the Swiss franc market for Asia," said one Singapore-based foreign banker. "It shows that the Singapore dollar is increasingly becoming a currency market of choice." Driving the surge in activity are extremely low local benchmark rates, which are close to record tights - even though the Singapore dollar is stronger than it has been in years. The five-year SOR Singapore benchmark rate narrowed 14bp last week alone, ending on Wednesday at 1.14 per cent. By Friday, the rate was 1.19 per cent. The tightest ever was 0.735 per cent last August. "The Singapore dollar is becoming more international in breadth and availability," said one Hong Kong-based syndicate banker, who said he was growing his presence in local markets. "And that is drawing interest from as far as Europe." Central China Real Estate this week priced an increased S$175million five-year bond at 10.75 per cent, inside the initial price talk of high 10 per cent to 11 per cent. Meanwhile Hong Kong conglomerate Hutchison Whampoa has been mulling perpetuals in Singapore, potentially bettering its US$2billion 6 per cent perpetual non-call five sold in 2010, and there has also been talk of an offer from Yanlord Land. Investors have been keen to get exposure to the Singapore dollar, seeing good prospects of the currency continuing to appreciate as the government combats inflationary pressures. The Monetary Authority of Singapore on Friday tightened rates to combat inflation, which stood at 4.6 per cent in February - more than double the 2.0 per cent average since 2000. Foreign investors also see Singapore, which boasts a Triple A, as a safe haven. There has even been talk about investments earmarked for the Dim Sum market being redirected to Singapore dollar bonds - especially since Hong Kong accounts are taking bigger shares in deals out of the city-state. The growing bid has allowed many recent Singapore dollar bonds to remain at or above par, while new US dollar issues have been hit by wild fluctuations. While some investors gripe about trouble getting in and out of trades quickly due to current illiquidity, this has helped to keep prices stable. - REUTERS