I have been trading commodities equities and currencies for more than 10 years. I am now starting a thread to track in a public forum, my commodities trading performance. I have put a small amount (currently about USD59k*) in a brokerage account that I have opened. I had started with USD16k in August 2011, and added funds as I went along. I trade most commodities both long and short, holding as short as a month and as long as 4 months. I use both fundamentals and technicals. I will track my performance on a % basis rather than $ basis, given I am still adding funds. I will be updating my journal monthly. With some comments as I go along. I intend that this journal be largely an orderly archive of my thoughts of my commodities trades for years to come. *for this amount, one needs to trade commodity CFDs than futures.
This month's return was +4.32%, on the back of excellent crude and copper positions. Generally, almost any long positions would prove profitable. I'm starting to put some shorts in certain commodities as of beginning March. I have increased the account size to about $92k.
My track record since I opened an account with Saxobank in Aug 2011 are as follows: Aug: +7.11% Sep: +0.15% Oct: -2.64% Nov: -1.09% Dec: +1.45% Jan: +4.60% Feb: +4.32% Going forward I will post my results here on a monthly basis, with some commentary.
Early march fatigue seems to be setting in, with my long positions taking a bit of a tumble. I'm taking double and triple looks at natural gas - is there a long opportunity here? I'm still looking. Crude is down, but you never can be sure it will keep down. I reckon the fatigue will diminish later this week and equities (and commodities) should move back up again.
I was thinking of moving my blog posts to this journal, but encountering some difficulties with navigating to the right places. I'm still experimenting with increasing my frequency of posts, but I don't want to be a slave to the journal. I thought posting performance % would be good, but I think I need also to post my $ performance going forward.
Current Value US$92459.35 x 1.26097 = S$116,588 US$ = United Stated Dollars S$ = Singapore Dollars * Rationale for Singapore currency reporting: While I trade in USD, I have hedged my funds to Singapore dollars because it is based on a basket of currencies including Yen, USD, GBP, CNY, Euro etc. The Current Value in USD does not appropriately record the performance. Only the S$ value does. If I had not hedged to S$, then the USD value would be the appropriate gauge. I don't want to repeat this rationale again, so in future, I will just report the Current Value. Also, the Current Value includes additional funds that I inject, so it is not the best way to view performance. I will report performance on a monthly basis.
Current Value: US$91905.84 x 1.25990 = S$115,792.16 The fall in stocks overnight was not unexpected, my net long position suffered but still supported by my shorts. Looks like a bit more to fall over the next few days, but I expect things to recover next week.
Current Value: US$93277.23x1.25628 = S$117,182.31 A slump overnight turned to a rally with greece issues *sort of* fading away and overall sentiment turning better. My shorts continued to stay down. My mind is yelling me to long natural gas but...
Current Value: US$94094.46x1.25312 = S$117,901.04 Greece got its haircut as it wanted and it can start on a clean slate. Hopefully things will turn out well for them. My positions are loitering about, not doing particularly much.
Current Value (Friday close): US$95032.92x1.25454 = 119,222.60 It was a day when my longs went higher and shorts went lower. So it was a "Perfect Bliss". But I've been through perfect storms too, so these things come when they come. Grains and softs were down, metals and energy up. It is a good way to start the weekend. I finally put through long natural gas futures, after for a long while. However I am only reasonably confident of this trade. Overall, I'm happy with the Greece outcome. But most of the west does need to learn something called austerity. For those born after the 80s, it is particularly hard to learn something they have not experienced. Perhaps a word or two from the senior folk who remember the harsh past will be bitter but good medicine.