As you know from being in the chatroom everyday, the CRB index at multi-year highs has "worried" me for weeks now... nitro
Oil and dollar are very dangerous markets right now. Oil is spiking on Ven. and Iraq concerns but the key fundamental is world demand, which probably can only justify $18 oil. At some point we will get a tremendous sell-off but only a fool would try to short it overnight until Iraq plays out. I find the current weakness in the dollar against the girlie euro and the pathetic yen to be personally offensive. But you have to respect the trend. Yen could implode at any time, and the european economy has repeatedly shown itself incapable of justifying dollar parity. For now, I wait.
The dollar's been artificially overvalued since '96 (ever since Rubin engineered interest rate/gold divergence). Support at current levels require too much capital inflow. All it would take is certain middle eastern countries pricing their oil in euros instead of dollars, and the game would unravel quickly. regards, laz