Commodity selloff due to margin calls

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Mercor, Mar 17, 2008.

  1. Where do you see this news?
     
    #11     Mar 19, 2008
  2. mokwit

    mokwit

    I am extrapolating that those that have been reported will not be the only ones - I suspect they will be the tip of an iceberg (as in big freeze) to come.

    Don't forget that many of the USD1b plus hedge funds are MULTI strategy so have slime exposure. They are multi strategy because teh IPO pitch was that tjhis gave the kind of stable revenue streams that supposedly made the start up with no track record as stable as GE.

    One of the best pieces of advice is to read the IPO prosectuses of concet stocks a few years after after they have crashed and burned. It will be beyond your comprehension that anybody could actually have believed this - some did.
     
    #12     Mar 19, 2008
  3. One of the best pieces of advice is to read the IPO prosectuses of concet stocks a few years after after they have crashed and burned. It will be beyond your comprehension that anybody could actually have believed this - some did.

    ----------------

    Are you referring to fig & bx?
     
    #13     Mar 19, 2008
  4. mokwit

    mokwit


    Yes, the way they can structure is that unleveraged equities are collateral for leveraged positions which are unwound first - equiteis falling will of course will accelerate that.
     
    #14     Mar 19, 2008
  5. mokwit

    mokwit


    I was referring to the internet boom has history has yet to judge PE and HF's. I also think it will appply to the concept of commodities and China will grow to the sky, just like the internet was going to. Disclosure: I am short BX .:D
     
    #15     Mar 19, 2008
  6. I can see a major reweighting coming up where traders will be getting out of commodities and back into equities that should provide a short-medium floor on equity prices
     
    #16     Mar 19, 2008
  7. mokwit

    mokwit


    ...............assumong the decline is not big enough for commodities margining to wipe out their equity - even on the less than exchange margin that HF's use - remember many commoddities, even copper and gold are VERY thin when everyone wants out together
     
    #17     Mar 19, 2008
  8. The bigger they are the harder they fall.

    John
     
    #18     Mar 19, 2008
  9. With "1 and 1000 year events" and poor liquidity environments, I assume that a HF will have trouble levering up on the short side, no?
     
    #19     Mar 19, 2008
  10. <b>The Great Unwind has begun, Citigroup warns</b>

    For once a major firm is giving timely, pertinent valuable advise.

    "We are now confronted by a broad bloodbath in the credit markets," Citigroup said. " The most leveraged paper is falling in value because it is leveraged, and now the least leveraged paper is also falling in value because it is owned by leveraged investors."

    http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...CF4-BE26-74EA4B9C9330}&tool=1&dist=bigcharts&

    pS
     
    #20     Mar 19, 2008