Commodity Prices

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by mikeriley, Jul 16, 2023.

  1. Sergio123

    Sergio123

    What do you mean? It's a financial instrument to make money on by buying low and selling for a higher price than what you bought it for. Just like metal and agricultural commodities.

    I didn't make the decision to classify it as a commodity instead of a security. That was the CFTC and SEC.
     
    #11     Jul 16, 2023
  2. nitrene

    nitrene

    According to the BIS pdf, US is becoming a net exporter so the commodity/USD relationship has changed.

    • Commodity prices and the US dollar have moved in tandem recently, in contrast to their usual statistical pattern of moving in opposite directions.

    • The causes of the change in the relationship are partly temporary, such as the unusual combination of recent shocks, and partly structural, such as the United States’ emergence as a net energy exporter.

    • The change in the nexus compounds the stagflationary effects of higher commodity prices for commodity importers, while its implications for commodity exporters are more ambiguous.

    • A lasting change in the nexus could create more difficult challenges for macro-financial stability frameworks, particularly in commodity-importing economies.
     
    #12     Jul 17, 2023
    mikeriley likes this.
  3. maxinger

    maxinger

    Your analysis is not complete.



    Wheat price is dependent on

    - supply and demand
    strong demand, higher wheat price

    - weather. bad weather, higher wheat price

    - US Dollar

    USD down, then USD-based things might go up

    eg EUR, GBP copper, crude oil, Gold, wheat ... might go up


    - etc etc etc
     
    Last edited: Jul 17, 2023
    #13     Jul 17, 2023
  4. Sergio123

    Sergio123

    I am glad I didn't waste time reading the article. It's not very through and it talks about oil and the petrodollar and the reason it gives is just very ambiguous....'structural changes'. Yeah ok.
     
    #14     Jul 17, 2023
  5. "The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) is a relative measure of the U.S. dollars (USD) strength against a basket of six influential currencies, including the Euro, Pound, Yen, Canadian Dollar, Swedish Korner, and Swiss Franc."

    "Wheat futures prices are quoted in dollars and cents per bushel and are traded in lot sizes of 5000 bushels (136 metric tons). Euronext Milling Wheat futures are traded in units of 50 tonnes and contract prices are quoted in dollars and cents per bushel."

    You are not comparing a pair, there isn't a correlation between them as they are measured in different units.
     
    #15     Jul 17, 2023
  6. eleanorK80

    eleanorK80

    The relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar is complex and can vary depending on various factors. While there can be instances of an inverse relationship between commodity prices and the US dollar, it is not always the case.
     
    #16     Jul 17, 2023