Commodity Bubble/Correction on the way.

exactly, I think there is more upside however it will end just as every bubble ends....this cannot continue...

 

It will correct. Corrections are actually very healthy and that negates the bubble factor. Gold needs to correct soon, but I think oil wants to go to 110 before correcting down to the 80's again. A lot of base metals have already corrected in the past 6 months and now they are continuing their trend.
Either you believe in the stagflation which so far has been proven right by what the market is telling us, or you believe the commodities are just another bubble that will pop as soon as growth slows to a certain point and everyone realizes that commodities have to stop going up. Don't forget that a lot of commodities are trading because of fundamental factors as well as geo political factors. I believe as long as China growth stays in line, commodities will continue to trend higher causing worse staglation fuelled by the rate cuts in the US.

 

A good correction will shake the weak hands who will wait 3-5 years and buy again from me at the top when they just "have to get back in!"

I am buying the pullback when I see that the strength of the move is resuming.

 

at some point liquidity will dry up. i don't think it will go from commodities back into equities. the economy will tank and the demand for a lot of commodities will still be strong for a number of reasons.

 

Is it really that big of a bubble or are prices up here because the dollar is in the crapper?

Oil, gold, wheat, etc. are all international commodities. I mean if you're paying for this stuff in Euros, it's much less expensive for you. Prices haven't increased nearly as much for euro paying consumers. What about more stable currencies? What if you paid for Oil in gold? The price really has not increased at all. I'm just putting an alternate theory out there that the "bubble" really only exists to ppl in the US since our currency is in the toilet.

 

CRAMER IS A CONTRARIAN INDICATOR.I would never take his advice and would only use it as a contrarian indicator.
Notice he told everyone to load up on csco,crox and tech in november exactly at their tops and then proceeded to get decimated.
Seriously,he has to be the worst price forecaster on TV if not wall st.

 

Hah! I tried with gold and got my clock cleaned!!!

I guess I was too early

 

my take is that all assets are in a bubble because of global liquidity, led by the states

 

In my humble opinion we are at the crossroads of an evolving global economy and we are experiencing a paradigm shift. There is no bubble. Prices of commodities may have minor corrections but prices are adjusting to compensate for the stagnation they have experienced the last 50 years.

Me thinks the prices you see today are the new lows of the future.

Now how does this apply to trading these commodities? I have no idea. I do know that the game is changing and what worked in the past may or may not work anymore. Small players like myself must be willing to adapt - quickly, to stay in the game.

“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.” – Charles Darwin

As always, just my 2¢

 

I knew gold was the play when it was under $500, I was long GLD back when it was at $46-48, wow, im kicking myself now, think I sold it around 50-51 a share and never looked at it again, sad, sad, sad....when I was long GLD you didnt hear anyone talking about $1000, $800 or even $750......