New stock bull begins. Today's action coupled with last week's gives me confirmation. I expect us to be over 12k soon.(3 weeks) Dollar will strengthen and Fed will hike this year. Oil's implosion means the consumer benefits. Sentiment and consumer discretionary are going to rise. Discuss.
Sucker rally to 1325-1350, then down to 1000 before the bear ends. Oil falling is a bear point, not a bull point - it hits the energy stocks (which are a major S&P component) hard , and indicates a slumping global economy. Dollar rally is also a bear point, making US equities more expensive to foreigners, and hitting export earnings. It's also a sign of global risk aversion (hence the Yen holding up quite strong too). Last but not least, we don't have a "wall of worry" with stocks rallying day after day, opening lower then shrugging off bad news and closing green. That's usually how bull markets act. Instead we have every Tom, Dick & Harry getting bullish and calling an end to the bear.
We'll see how the SP500 behaves when we go up into resistance. If we close > 1350 by months end I will have to go long.
+1. I expect us to hit some good chop near resistance and move sideways for a few days but eventually break through.
I would contend that even though equities tank when rates go up the inflows of foreign capital into equities will mute the drops. I'm expecting US equity inflows to increase substantially over the next few months as the US regains financial stability.
doesnt look like were going to get much over 1300. of course once we started sh$tiing the bed more pointless interventions from the fed and government morons should be expected.
Looks like the FED has been right so far about commodity inflation . . . but here on ET they would never get an ounce of credit.