Specifically, can it help in predicting the potential medium-term move of crude prices? Say a month or two out? Look to the middle of the report for NYMEX light-sweet. Can the reported open interest in longs and shorts between the producers/swaps/managed and non-reportables, and as compared to change from the previous week, give us any insights? I haven't done any studies on this. Has anyone out there done so? http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/petroleum_sof.htm
It could possibly be - once,twice a year it gives a solid reliable signal.If you have enough time and patient to wait.
I track the data closely. I don't use it to "predict" anything but rather to use that information as part of a bigger picture. Keep in mind the data is delayed, not real time.
I understand this, it is a weekly report. But I recall your comments about looking at the "forward curve", and am wondering if the weekly CoT report can help form a clearer bigger picture about the crude situation, and maybe help alter how we see the forward curve changing and in which direction it may go.
Fordewind, your charts here do not help. I am speaking of crude futures, not USD/CAD. Different beasts.
I have the COT plotted on my weekly charts - here is how I use it, I learned this from material I read authored on this from market wizard Peter Brandt (40 + years with stellar ROR & minimal draw downs) When the COT/speculators are at multi year or all time highs that serves as a warning - the trade is extremely crowded by the 'dumb $', buyers may be nearing exhaustion. Will I go short based on this alone - no way. I am looking for a topping pattern and price confirmation before entering - this is often the case - but not always. The COT speculators being at highs every so often can lead to another strong thrust up before finally turning over, which could take many months. I think the COT offers some decent clues in deeply oversold markets during the accumulation phase where you see the commercials building massive positions while speculators are going in the opposite direction - they are capitulating.
I have also looked to employ the CoT report and long/short volume for the VIX complex. It would be nice to get some actual numbers on any "predictive"/influencing capabilities of this info on price...
Interesting insights there Mr. Gumby. I wish I had been following the report back in February before the +10% drop. I kept seeing the generalized news about record long positions, but did not have the actual data because I never thought to look for it back then.