commercials adding indice shorts here

Discussion in 'Trading' started by hawk 1, Oct 11, 2008.

  1. hawk 1

    hawk 1

    interesting not very bullish yet?????? we will see day trade this crap only way to go
     
  2. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    I noticed that too. If memory serves the NQ was the only exception. Seems odd for them to be adding shorts after such a steep move down.
     
  3. they're probably finally using futures to hedge their long exposure

    dow breaking 10000 felt like capitulation........and absolutely nobody ever thought we would break 8000 a few days later.........that was just capitulation on top of capitulation.......we crashed this week.
     
  4. hawk 1

    hawk 1

    added 60k long 90k short seems like this is too easy to call the bottom with the Nq leading with strength but who knows??? Even if it is I bet we have some kind of retest 87 style
     
  5. I doubt if there was capitulation today.

    The Rydex Bear/Bull ratio actually declined... still around 160%.

    Capitulation would be more like 300%.
     
  6. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    Commercials added net shorts again in the SP and ES and reduced net longs in YM and NQ.
     
  7. Hey....they know the deal....."stay SHORT and stay OFTEN" :D

    We still have an election to get through here very soon......not time to look LONG yet.
     
  8. Is this the COT data that came out?

    I think they're expecting a crash
     
  9. anyone ever actually take a look at the past performance related to commercial positions? Notice they were gigantically net long, with large specs being equally enormously short--
    RIGHT AT THE TOP.

    It pays to look at at actual history, before propagating specious myths -- they don't always pan out.

    Currently the positions are reversed; now specs are gigantically net long, and not only are commercials short, but small traders are also net short.
    What does that tell you about commercials being net short? Maybe not much, but it certainly doesn't say to go short now.
     
  10. Lucrum

    Lucrum

    I have but it's been many years. If I remember correctly, at the time, commercials had the reputation for being correct more often than not BUT they were also frequently early. Sometimes way early. But that was a long time ago.


    I just looked back at Oct 16,07.
    You're right , large specs in the SP were net short, commercials net long and small specs net short. In the e-mini large specs were also short as well as commercials (to a small extent) with small specs being net long.

    In that case at least overall it looks like the ES was the contract to pay attention to.
     
    #10     Oct 24, 2008