Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by trainee2006, Nov 11, 2007.
Is it time to short/long copper?
Long? Bull markets in copper seem to finish the year on a strong note. The S&P has been leading copper on a leash. If stocks turn up, copper should too. Pray for the "January Effect" to be in force.
Was thinking the same thing. Is this the next one which we can short from a near peak?
Surprisingly large amount of global copper consumption goes into US housing. Much of China demand is actually US consumer demand, although I gather the stories about China consumption related to power lines actually have some foundation rather than being commodity brokers commission generators.
Wild card is idiot schoolmasters (who mumble into their beard every time inflation is mentioned) cutting rates again.
Are you talking about the lines being used in China for the construction of the actual housing/building units, themselves (Copper), or the external Power Transmission Lines from source through plants and switching stations up to, but not within, the housing/building properties (ALL are Aluminum Alloy!!!)?
Not that this makes that much difference, as I believe that the Chinese are doing a LOT of building/upgrading/remodeling as their society deals with its newly arriving affluence -- this requires a lot of Copper. Additionally, a lot of electric/electronic appliances are now on the individual's buy-list that was never there before -- AND, bicycles are now beginning to be massively scrapped in favor of previously unaffordable automobiles.
Yeah -- Copper, Copper, Copper
Right on about the bearded profs
Oak Harbor, WA
I was talking about transmission lines but it looks like my info is outdated and substitution for Aluminium has already taken place then - a function of price not performance I would think.
Think of washing machines, many many more Chinese households will have one BUT with containers going back empty and labour at $1 a day it might become cheaper to unwind and the rewind the coils from discarded US washing machines.
As long as HG is trading under 3 then Cu is subject to further liquidation imo. End of year producer selling is very common as inventories that sit produce tax liabilities. I expect further weakness until 2/1/08 in all of the base metals complex...
I got short today at 311. I have been stalking this bear flag on the weekly chart for, well ... weeks haha. It completed today and I figure there is room to move down to the 260 area. This scenario fits in nicely with the the ongoing triangle formation on the monthly chart as well.
Anyone else taking a short on copper?
Sideways market folks -
Copper should plunge in sympathy with stocks. We'll see.
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