Coming Aug 29th: Black Monday or Bounce Monday?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by KCalhoun, Aug 27, 2022.

  1. Is that manual work or do you have a script to check for that?

    For 2022, I have 11 Mondays with a negative net change following a Friday with a negative net change. This is ES, but I would assume SPX would be similar.

    But for my prior post, I was specifically looking at a relentless trend day down, i.e., 2 % down or more closing at bottom of the range. That hasn't happen so many times over the last few years.

    I count 10 going back to 2015. The following Monday was net positive 70 % of the time.
     
    #11     Aug 27, 2022
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  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Too lazy to code something up. I just used ShowMe's. Then turned them off and added arrows/circles in their place to keep chart image from being too cluttered.

    Thought about looking just for big down Fridays over longer period of time but again got lazy. :) Also working on other stuff ATM. Maybe before tomorrow's Globex open I'll take another look see.
     
    #12     Aug 27, 2022
    Laissez Faire likes this.
  3. I'm lazy - hence why I have it coded up. :)

    Feel free to let us know if you do any interesting studies tomorrow.
     
    #13     Aug 27, 2022
  4. That's a gambling, crystal ball, future question -- whatever anyone is saying right now...it's purely a coin toss. And I don't think there is anyone in history who is successful at coin tossing accuracy.

    To trade the future, or day/intraday, you have to observe it, understand it, in real time like a spider or octopus or rapist or abductor waiting for the opportunin time....because trading can be part art, part science.

    Understand the overall picture, and how all its storm variables and elements are mixing and jiving all together.
    Develop a hypothesis, but don't be so quick to act....look for Tells and signs, similar to a poker table.
    The market is a human entity... it pays to be a psychologist, therapist, and historian and action hero, and detective, and author,
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2022
    #14     Aug 27, 2022
    KCalhoun likes this.
  5. easymon1

    easymon1

    #15     Aug 27, 2022
    KCalhoun likes this.
  6. TheDawn

    TheDawn

    Coming Aug 29th: Black Monday or Bounce Monday?

    - I think it's neither. I think it's going to be a flat Monday. What happened on Friday was purely a knee-jerk reaction. The market usually takes a breather after a knee-jerk movement to calm down and digest to plan its next move. That's my observation.

    So I would be very careful with any volatility play. And if I really want to make a move, I wouldn't go long.
     
    #16     Aug 27, 2022
  7. easymon1

    easymon1

    What timeframe charts do you trade?
     
    #17     Aug 27, 2022
  8. Overnight

    Overnight

    Are you out of your mind?!? That was not a knee-jerk reaction...That was a solid selling regimen into RTH close, and it continued down and down into the futures ETH close. The shit closed on a down tick. I expect this to continue. As I had mentioned in some other thread...The bull market cannot resume until the Fed indicates a pause on rate hikes or some other sign of QE. This idea, ( which was hoped for by some, me included,) was annihilated yesterday when Powell put his foot down.

    Remember, there is no more PPT, because they cannot trade stocks any longer. So they don't give a shit. Hammer down!
     
    Last edited: Aug 27, 2022
    #18     Aug 27, 2022
    SunTrader and KCalhoun like this.
  9. VEGASDESERT

    VEGASDESERT

    The weekly says up, the daily says down to sideways.

    Beats me.

    Coin flip it is.
     
    #19     Aug 27, 2022
    KCalhoun likes this.
  10. KCalhoun

    KCalhoun

    Yeah I expect a slight bounce possible, if inverses gap down premkt I'll sell if they go down another .3 from premkt lows, then rebuy if they bounce l8er

    If they gap up I'll scale up...
     
    #20     Aug 27, 2022