I trade several stocks using a trend following system, and over the last week it's put me about net 50% short both by $$$ and by beta. Since this is the most reliable predictor I know of future stock market movement (if I knew a better one, I'd trade that) I suppose my opinion has to be bearish. I will also note that when the fed says "have all the free money you want for as long as you want" and the stock market goes down, there must be substantial underlying bearish sentiment - otherwise someone would take a bunch of that free money and buy stocks.
Interesting...I trade something similar on the Russell1000 The last 6 months have had by far fewer short signals than any other period in the last 10 years. Over the 10 year period its about 50/50, but not a single short signal since May. We'll see...clearly sentiment has changed - at least temporarily. But, as far as I can tell there is no meaningful signal yet for trended shorts.
Another thread trashed by lumpy's half-witted, monosyllabic rantings. According to his trading acumen, a fat finger is going to propel this market lower ... right? Just ... LOL
Hey Mandie, how's your trading lately? I hope it's better than your last ES Journal calls performance of 3 ES points a month. Ouch, that one hurts. Touché... You want some more? And everyone is still wondering why you keep giving advices and lessons to everyone on this site. I eat 10 arrogant insecured wannabe traders like you everyday. Keep working kid. Just LOL
Why are you dissing a well respected trader on this board such as mandle. It's obvious from the sheer number of posts he generates that he's quite the expert trader. You should be thankful for his pearls of wisdom.
Mandel, I'm with you on this. However, knowing that price tends to fall twice as fast as it rises and seeing evidence that the market is VERY unforgiving at these toppy levels, I'd like to put on SPY put options at the next "overbought" level. The October pivot low was nearly 30 pts above September's pivot low; but the recent pivot low was about 15 pts above October's, so I see a market that's still riding the trend but getting tired and ready to take profits at any sign of weakness. Where do you see the next pivot high? I'm seeing 1075 as an early short, with 1110 as the zone to complete a short position. With these levels in mind, what month strike do you think would provide the "safest" SPY put trade?