There is a huge difference between the University of Chicago, located in Hyde Park and the University of Illinois, Chicago campus.
The random walk is not a joke and the markets are very efficient. Current thinking is that it is random "with a drift" - it does trend some. Very few major firms can even outperform the annual increase in the stock market of say 7%. In other words, they basically ride the natural longterm rise in the market, and few can get anything above that without unnatural risk. But none of your words prove anything. Beliefs and opinions are worthless to prove, debate or explain anything The fact that very few traders are lucrative, for a long time, with good statistics (Sharpe, Profit Factor, Max DD, etc.) makes the efficient market argument far more compelling than you state. Or one can look at the thousands of web/fax/email/phone and other trading advisories. Over 99% of them do not work. VERY few people have a serious outperformance edge that persists. The best answer? No one says COMPLETELY efficient, but certainly the markets are VERY efficient.
Yep. I love the story about the economist who saw a $20 bill on the ground, but ignored it because he figured that if there really was a $20 bill on the ground, someone would have picked it up already. By analogy, my thinking is to try to figure out where $20 bills would be most likely found and how to identify when they will drop. SM
Sigh... and of course, the reality is the $20 is on the floor because it's a fluke - it fell out of someone's pocket. Meanwhile, you spend the next 10 years conveniencing yourself that every time a red car passes a blue car, another $20 will appear. Your sin is far graver than an academics.
Maybe the red car is an ambulance and the blue car is a police car. And sometimes when that happens, it means there's been an accident, and there might be loose money blowing around. Might actually work if you could search all red car-blue car passing with the speed of a computer. Not that I condone ambulance chasing for cash.
Yeah... sure, you see a $20 on a floor, and this is the line of thought that's worth risk/reward effort? ... or, you can just go get a job rather than chasing after unlikely and unstable fact patterns. This sort of thinking is pretty symptomatic of retail "trader" thinking.
This is the most pointless thread i have ever read. you are all a bunch of idiots with nothing better to do but waste my time
So in other words you're looking for a weekly paycheck while your burn through somebody elses money as you're "learning"? Good one