Collection Of Intraday Patterns For The ES Market

Patterns are there every day. All day. Probably there are 10 or so that work extremely well...

 

Outside-day + upside break in QQQ yesterday:

http://www.priceactionlab.com/Blog/2011/03/an-outside-day-pattern-with-an-upside-breakout-in-qqq/

 

The descending triangle. A bearish continuation pattern.

Nothing magic here. Simply repeated tests of support with steadily lower highs, until support finally breaks.

I have to say that I find this quite beautiful to look at. If only I had held my conviction from my short @ 1310,25, instead of taking a premature exit @ 1309,75.

Oh well. Maybe next time.

 

do you not see the h&S in that chart ?

 

I do now

 

A nice H&S pattern materialized in today`s session. Called and traded live in the ES journal.

When we also had a gap that was pulling like a magnet below, I felt pretty confident about a short.

 

I imagine many have tried this before.

 

A few Patterns I've backtested that trade consistently are:

1. The 1st calendar day of the month. Buy at the open, sell at the close. 70% success rate since the S&P began.

2. The night before Option Expiration from 10:30pm CST-8:30AM CST the market has risen 72% of the time. I like a 5 point stop and an 8 point target for this trade.

3. If the previous trade is profitable, the Option Expiration has dropped at the open 75% of the time. I like having a 4 point stop and a 5-7 point target. If neither of these are hit, end trade at 11AM CST.

4. On the Last Trading day of the month, sell at 2:00pm until the close of the market. Stops should be at 4-5 points and target should be 5 points. End the trade at the close of the market if neither are hit. This is also a 70% successful trade.

Yes, these have been traded as well as tested. It doesn't matter if you acknowledge patterns or not, these are definitely natural tendencies that do exist, regardless of your theological trading beliefs

 

How did you test them ?


How many years back ?

 

The First Calendar day is the S&P from 1984-current, but the ES results from 1997-2011 are the same.

Pre-Option Expiration is ES 2001-2011

Option Expiration is ES 1997-2011,

Last Trading Day of Month is ES 1997-2011

I tested them with Quantum Charts. I don't know a single word of programming, but Quantum Charts lets you create and backtest very complex strategies without having to do any programming. Heck, I would still be playing around with moving average crossovers if it weren't for this software ;-p