Collapse of the American Empire: Swift, Silent, Certain

Discussion in 'Economics' started by WallStWhizKid, Mar 10, 2010.

  1. "One of the disturbing facts of history is that so many civilizations collapse," warns anthropologist Jared Diamond in Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. Many "civilizations share a sharp curve of decline. Indeed, a society's demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power."

    Now, Harvard's Niall Ferguson, one of the world's leading financial historians, echoes Diamond's warning: "Imperial collapse may come much more suddenly than many historians imagine. A combination of fiscal deficits and military overstretch suggests that the United States may be the next empire on the precipice." Yes, America is on the edge.

    Dismiss his warning at your peril. Everything you learned, everything you believe and everything driving our political leaders is based on a misleading, outdated theory of history. The American Empire is at the edge of a dangerous precipice, at risk of a sudden, rapid collapse.

    Ferguson is brilliant, prolific and contrarian. His works include the recent Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World; The Cash Nexus: Money and Power in the Modern World; Colossus: The Rise and Fall of The American Empire; and The War of the World, a survey of the "savagery of the 20th century" where he highlights a profound "paradox that, though the 20th century was 'so bloody,' it was also 'a time of unparalleled progress.'"

    Why? Throughout history imperial leaders inevitably emerge and drive their nations into wars for greater glory and "economic progress," while inevitably leading their nation into collapse. And that happens suddenly and swiftly, within "a decade or two."

    You'll find Ferguson's latest work, "Collapse and Complexity: Empires on the Edge of Chaos," in Foreign Affairs, the journal of the Council of Foreign Relations, a nonpartisan think tank. His message negates all the happy talk you're hearing in today's news -- about economic recovery and new bull markets, about "hope," about a return to "American greatness" -- from Washington politicians and Wall Street bankers.

    'Collapse of All Empires:' 5 Stages Repeating Through the Ages

    Ferguson opens with a fascinating metaphor: "There is no better illustration of the life cycle of a great power than 'The Course of Empire,' a series of five paintings by Thomas Cole that hangs in the New York Historical Society. Cole was a founder of the Hudson River School and one of the pioneers of nineteenth-century American landscape painting; in 'The Course of Empire,' he beautifully captured a theory of imperial rise and fall to which most people remain in thrall to this day. Each of the five imagined scenes depicts the mouth of a great river beneath a rocky outcrop."

    If you're unable to see them at the historical society, they're all reproduced in Foreign Affairs, underscoring Ferguson's warnings that the "American Empire on the precipice," near collapse.

    First. 'The Savage State,' Before the Empire Rises

    "In the first, 'The Savage State,' a lush wilderness is populated by a handful of hunter-gatherers eking out a primitive existence at the break of a stormy dawn." Imagine our history from Columbus' discovery of America in 1492 on through four more centuries as we savagely expanded across the continent.

    Second. 'The Arcadian or Pastoral State,' as the American Empire Flourishes

    "The second picture, 'The Arcadian or Pastoral State,' is of an agrarian idyll: the inhabitants have cleared the trees, planted fields, and built an elegant Greek temple." The temple may seem out of place. However, Cole's paintings were done in 1833-1836, not long after Thomas Jefferson built the University of Virginia using classical Greek and Roman revival architecture.

    As Ferguson continues the tour you sense you're actually inside the New York Historical Society, visually reminded of how history's great cycles do indeed repeat over and over. You are also reminded of one of history's great tragic ironies -- that all nations fail to learn the lessons of history, that all nations and their leaders fall prey to their own narcissistic hubris and that all eventually collapse from within.

    Third. Consummation of the American Empire

    "The third and largest of the paintings is 'The Consummation of Empire.' Now, the landscape is covered by a magnificent marble entrepôt, and the contented farmer-philosophers of the previous tableau have been replaced by a throng of opulently clad merchants, proconsuls and citizen-consumers. It is midday in the life cycle."

    'The Consummation of Empire' focuses us on Ferguson's core message: At the very peak of their power, affluence and glory, leaders arise, run amok with imperial visions and sabotage themselves, their people and their nation. They have it all.

    But more-is-not enough as greed, arrogance and a thirst for power consume them. Back in the early days of the Iraq war, Kevin Phillips, political historian and former Nixon strategist, also captured this inevitable tendency in Wealth and Democracy:

    "Most great nations, at the peak of their economic power, become arrogant and wage great world wars at great cost, wasting vast resources, taking on huge debt, and ultimately burning themselves out." We sense the "consummation" of the American Empire occurred with the leadership handoff from Bill Clinton to George W. Bush.

    Unfortunately that peak is behind us: Clinton, Bush, Henry Paulson, Ben Bernanke, Sarah Palin, Barack Obama, Mitt Romney and all future American leaders are merely playing their parts in the greatest of all historical dramas, repeating but never fully grasping the lessons of history in their insatiable drive for "economic progress," to recapture former glory ... while unwittingly pushing our empire to the edge, into collapse.

    Four. Destruction of the Empire

    Then comes 'The Destruction of Empire,' the fourth stage in Ferguson's grand drama about the life-cycle of all empires. In "Destruction" "the city is ablaze, its citizens fleeing an invading horde that rapes and pillages beneath a brooding evening sky." Elsewhere in "The War of the World," Ferguson described the 20th century as "the bloodiest in history, one hundred years of butchery." Today's high-tech relentless news cycle, suggests that our 21st century world is a far bloodier return to savagery.

    At this point, investors are asking themselves: How can I prepare for the destruction and collapse of the American Empire? There is no solution in the Cole-Ferguson scenario, only an acceptance of fate, of destiny, of history's inevitable cycles.

    But there is one in "Wealth, War and Wisdom" by hedge fund manager Barton Biggs, Morgan Stanley's former chief global strategist who warns us of the "possibility of a breakdown of the civilized infrastructure," advising us to buy a farm in the mountains.

    "Your safe haven must be self-sufficient and capable of growing some kind of food ... well-stocked with seed, fertilizer, canned food, wine, medicine, clothes, etc. Think Swiss Family Robinson." And when they come looting, fire "a few rounds over the approaching brigands' heads."

    Five. Desolation ... After the Empire Disappears

    "Finally, the moon rises over the fifth painting, 'Desolation,'" says Ferguson. There is not a living soul to be seen, only a few decaying columns and colonnades overgrown by briars and ivy." No attacking "brigands?" No loveable waste-collecting robots from Wall-E?

    The good news is the Earth will naturally regenerate itself without savage humans, as we saw in Alan Weisman's brilliant "The World Without Us:" Steel buildings decay. Microbes eat indestructible plastics. Eons pass. And Earth reemerges in all its glory, a Garden of Eden.

    Epilogue: 'All Empires ... Are Condemned to Decline and Fall'

    In a Los Angeles Times column, Ferguson asks: "America, a Fragile Empire: Here today, gone tomorrow, could the United States fall that fast?" And his answer is clear and emphatic: "For centuries, historians, political theorists, anthropologists and the public have tended to think about the political process in seasonal, cyclical terms ... we discern a rhythm to history. Great powers, like great men, are born, rise, reign and then gradually wane. No matter whether civilizations decline culturally, economically or ecologically, their downfalls are protracted."

    We are deceiving ourselves, convinced "the challenges that face the United States are often represented as slow-burning ... threats seem very remote."

    "But what if history is not cyclical and slow-moving but arrhythmic?" asks Ferguson. What if history is "at times almost stationary but also capable of accelerating suddenly, like a sports car? What if collapse does not arrive over a number of centuries but comes suddenly, like a thief in the night?" What if the collapse of the American Empire is dead ahead, in the next decade? What if, as with the 2000 dot-com crash, we're in denial, refusing to prepare?

    Ferguson's final message about America's destiny comes from Foreign Affairs: "Conceived in the mid-1830s, Cole's great five-part painting has a clear message: all empires, no matter how magnificent, are condemned to decline and fall." Throughout history, empires function "in apparent equilibrium for some unknowable period. And then, quite abruptly ... collapse," a blunt reminder of the sudden, swift, silent, certain timetable in Diamond's "Collapse" where a "society's demise may begin only a decade or two after it reaches its peak population, wealth and power."

    You are forewarned: If the peak of America's glory was the leadership handoff from Clinton to Bush, then we have already triggered the countdown to collapse, the decade from 2010 until 2020 ... tick ... tick ... tick ...
  2. Imagine being broke but you still carry wallet full of credit cards and nice suit on.

    America is genius and broke at the same time

    America is broke

    FED now buys our own bonds and masquerades as foreign investor

    And America is genius too.

    Any other country would have completely collapsed already yet US still manages to look like it's not broke.

    Half of Americans still don't believe US is broke. That is a huge government achievement.

    Of course when it does blow up. Holy shit its gonna be big one.
  3. It doesnt have to be this way. The right thing to do is to hand the banks the losses and let the losers fail. The US will survive and still be a great place.

    Everything we have done in the last year is making everything worse in the end.
  4. the1


    The US is following the same path as Rome almost verbatim with the biggest factors being a over-extended military, excessive interest on the debt, and heavy social programs. The state I live in is already making cut backs on bus and train services and plans to lay off 16,000 teachers. The fall has already begun and it may happen much quicker than Rome fell, especially if Obama is successful in passing health care reform. The US Government has never started a program that hasn't run up massive deficits and health care will be no exception.
  5. Why you call America an "empire"????
    Commie comrade?
  6. the1


    The only reason the US hasn't collapsed already is because the dollar is still the reserve currency. The states in the US can't print money like the Federal Government does so they are forced to cut spending, which has already begun. The Federal Government will be forced to cut spending in the near future when the Fed refuses to buy more debt. Bernanke has already mentioned this in no uncertain terms so it's just a matter of when the Fed begins to refuse. Undoubtedly, he will face enormous pressure and will probably be replaced if and when he stops buying but at some point the Fed will no longer have the ability to float the spending of Congress.

    And yes, the average citizen doesn't understand the dire circumstances. I had a brief conversation about how money is created with someone today and all she kept saying is that she didn't understand how they could print all that money so fast. The average citizen equates money with the paper they are holding in their pockets. They don't understand that money is nothing more than an entry on a computer screen and that it originates from debt.

  7. the1


    You have to understand that the tail wags the dog. The banks control the Government, not the other way around. Congress and the President didn't make the decision to bail out the banks. That all happened in a bank's conference room somewhere. How many former GS exec's are in positions in Government? Goldman Sachs <b>is</b> the government.

  8. The first round already happened in October 2008.
    Wiped out virtually 50% of all retirement accounts.

    The dominoes are falling and every state/local/federal agency working from 5 year budgets based on projected tax revenue have tapped there reserves.

    In the end its all vapor / funny money. True worth of a currency is measured by the cost of a pack of cigarettes, booze and food.

    Drug dealers have a better pulse than our esteem fed.
    The Coke exchange indicates the dollar has 50% more purchasing power! A gram in 2007 averaged $100 and now on sale everywhere for only $50: What a deal for your dollar.

    You know times are a changin when strip clubs lay off hot strippers cause their sugar daddy's aren't payin.
  9.'r reading way to many mainstream press bullshit.

    the restructuring of WallStreet, yes. Soon, the Markets will be over regulated with extra tax added, including the Health Care tax which is 2.9% on Interest and Dividins if it is passed. So, many more brokers, traders soon to be on their way to other jobs.

    I doubt the collapse is going to happen, due to the Banks and Wallstree being regulated. ( I don't want more regulation but you can't fight it/) However, the destruction of the middle class, yes. Those who lost their jobs, may never find another or may have to work for far less. The day's of not being cash liquid and driving fancy cars, dinning out in resturants everynight, shopping at the "Stores" , buying homes, etc...all the luxary items will no longer be part of the middle class vocab.

    Manufacturing may be trending to "Lights Out" opperation. I have only one client that is actually using such a opperation and he layed off 90% of his "manpower", only has 40 engineers and the rest is pure automation. This seems to be the trend that many of my other clients are talking about if:

    Health Care passes,
    Bush Tax cut is not kept
    Fed Gov passes Carbon Tax

    What many people fail to understand is that those who "Produce" will continue to. One way or the other. It isn't as if the US producers want to lay off...they are going to have zero choice. They are not gona allow their life and their dreams to be destroyed by the Fed Gov. It's pure survival mode for my clients as far as their mentality goes. They are putting up huge revenue now and profits are coming in stronger than they have in 8 years. But that is due to the "Fat" being cut out. If the OBAMANATION crew decides to put the squeez on them, they will unload even more workers, find automation and continue to produce and make money. Some may even move off shore.

    OBAMANATION is hurting the very folks that voted for him and those who are in debt beyond their means. He will destroy the middle class but he will not destroy the true wealth of this country, thus the "Collapse" will not happen.

    I feel for most who are in dead-end industries, those who refuse to find the light at the end of the tunnel and those who have their heads in the sand.

    But as my clients, I will not allow OBAMANATION to destroy my life or my income. It's time for me to make even more money and put it to work as well as pay the taxes. I don't really have much of a choice. Thank God for OIL!
  10. TGregg



    The mighty giant faltered a step and some countries almost went under. If the US fails, it will most assuredly not be silent. Everybody from Eskimos to bushmen will know of it. The world will reel from the effects. Swift seems unlikely, certain maybe, but silent?

    #10     Mar 10, 2010