Cold War effect

Discussion in 'Economics' started by trading1, Nov 10, 2006.

  1. Any views on the possibility of a cold war re emerging? Given some events in the energy markets and the extraordinary way the press can react, this seems a real possibility. As for an effect on the markets, I believe that there'll be an effect on national security, with terrorists given more leeway. Energy markets might also be effected and certain commoditys like maybe palladium. Any feedback is appreciated.
  2. toc


    'Any views on the possibility of a cold war re emerging?'

    Where there are people there will be politics of like and dislike, groups or communities of nations are no different.

    There can be new 'cold war' possible US vrs China or EU or Islamic Nations. But I do not see any big chance of Russkies coming back to a position of challenging the US in any way. They are too spent up, physically and mentally. But for oil prices, they would be totally bankrupt.
  3. hels02


    I don't think so.

    There aren't any good candidates for the US to have a cold war with (as defined by both sides having limited diplomatic contact, in an atmosphere of suspicion and mutual distrust, and characterized by unilateral arms buildup).

    While the Republicans may want to pretend China is a potential enemy, we are so intermeshed trade/money wise that it would be like a pair of siamese twins joined at the hip having a fist fight.

    I did a 7 city tour of China this past summer. My god, China's more capitalist than the US... by far. North Korea has more to fear from China than from the US at their rate of change.

    The Soviet Union? There's no turning back for them... they are too economically unstable to think about cold war for decades, if ever. By then, their 80s stockpiles will be unstable and unusable.

    The Middle East? Isreal will turn Iran into a sea of glass if there is any real nuclear threat. They aren't going to wait on the US. Isreal is the 3rd most heavily armed nation on Earth. But Rep or Dem, the US has their back. In the 70's Isreal fought off ALL their neighboring countries alone, they've only gotten stronger since then.

    Who are we going to have a cold war with? There's no serious military challenge from any part of the world... and even a Democrat controlled US would turn Hawk in a moment if we were really threatened... with a military that every decade or so would like a new training ground for raw recruits and a way to get rid of aging armament.

    The US is ancient Sparta, we are a warrior culture. Despite the protests against war, there's always a huge segment of the population that welcomes it. Fighting us militarily would be like inviting people to step into a ring with Mike Tyson at his prime.

    Further, the world is becoming globalized... there aren't too many willing and able to fight us with arms. Especially now, there's simply no need to. Those who want to take us out will do it economically, because that's the easiest and best way to hurt us.
    I think that's coming, it's been coming, and I don't see a good, simple or short term solution.

    If we don't develop some kind of economic advantage over the other world economies soon... our way of life really is threatened. We are no longer the mostly self sufficient, isolationist nation we were before WWII. Similar to Mike Tyson, the once undefeatable champion who was brought down to poverty thru poor money management.

    Today's wars are fought in a different arena, and we're losing.