Coin flip study

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by digitalnomad, Oct 17, 2019.

  1. I'm not testing this, but here is one for you Python guys looking for a building block and possible improvement tips. Should be a fun experiment if someone wants to step up.

    1. Wait one hour after US market open (10:30 EST)
    2. Randomly generate a coin toss
    3. Heads-Go Long/Tails-Go Short
    4. Enter 1 contract ES or NQ at market
    5. Set stop loss at 1/2 of Daily ATR(20)
    6. Exit with loss or 15 minute before close (15:45 EST)

    1000 trade simulations per test, with $10 cost/slippage per side
     
    SimpleMeLike likes this.
  2. ET180

    ET180

    Without commissions and given enough trades, it would generate no returns. With commissions, it will lose money given enough trades.
     
  3. Haha! That's some impressive cashier math.
     
  4. Overnight

    Overnight

    That there invalidates anything you have to say. It is argument bait.

    I did the same thing in a way, when everyone kept spouting on about how all you had to do to become rich was to buy the RTH close, and sell on the RTH open.

    I implored people to try it with real money. Nobody ever did. Even the people who said that that was the sure way to riches didn't try it. Not even in sim trades. My sim tests on it were limited, and of course showed limited success.

    Same deal here. Man.
     
    .sigma likes this.
  5. I guess, but I could care less though, as I have no need for the research data. I was just trying to offer some idea stimulation with a basic starting point. At least it’s measurable, unlike most of the drivel presented on ET.
     
  6. Overnight

    Overnight

    It's been done sir, and your parameters seem overbearing. You are just saying, randomly enter the market on one side, and close position before the bell. zzzz.
     
  7. That wasn’t the intention actually. Compared to my live implementations, the parameters are quite simple. Nothing granular going on here.
     
  8. volpri

    volpri

    Why would an experienced trader like you do a comedy show like this? So sad? Those algo’s not working for you in the arctic circle? You know you can buy a kerosene heater and warm your computer up and pollute the environment at the same time don’t you?
     
  9. Bullus

    Bullus

    Trading should not be based on luck or random events. That's not rational
     
  10. I think it's funny how we subjectively assume it's a guaranteed loser, just because it's too simple and partially random. In reality, the logic in its current form, probably outperforms 99% of traders here, or just retail in general, even if it loses money, which I don't know for sure it does.
     
    #10     Oct 18, 2019