I can't take any more punishment Closing out my long position taking a 27% haircut which wipes out almost all the profits from the previous short which I mistakenly reversed in October. I'm going to sit on the sidelines for a bit and wait for an opportunity to short.....
I don't know what moved you to short, nor what moved you to buy out, but when I read your post, I thought, "This was written by someone who's not solidly clear about an Entry signal not being the inverse of an Exit signal" and vice versa. Another thought was that the market which [you've] reluctantly exited "late" might be poised to turn right now, putting you squarely into the Sell-at-the-bottoms/Buy-at-the-tops School (only inverted, cuz y'know: "Pro" and all). Can you write down your trading plan? Can you make *rules* out of anything? That would (maybe/probably) go a long way. Good Luck.
You been a member since 2002, so you been trading since then? I actually been buying Coffee since Sept 2017 and always hedging, so losses much less if at all, couple times made first target and 90% get stopped out at little better than breakeven, if lucky hedged open profits for the fall, but those are 50/50 of getting in for a signal has to generate. I been trading Coffee very long time, besides the Meats, one of my favorite markets. I went long again couple days ago, see it holds or not, guessing game. In 2002, coffee went as low as 46.30 in past 20 years, hope it doesn't go down that low, but have to stick with my system. I started hedging in the 90's, much to learn to do correctly, guess that is why it not taught by some vendor?
I'm following a trend following strategy with coffee, which leads inevitably to many drawdowns. Probably only about 30% of trades are profitable, but hopefully these will more than make up for the losses. The difficulty comes when the trend is not clear as it this case. It looked like the trend was reversing last October, but sadly this was not the case
If you have been buying coffee since Sept 2017 and are still making money then you must have a great system....
it seems like coffee was on uptrend in mid oct 18. by mid Nov 18, traders already knew the uptrend could not be substained, and would have closed the long position with small loss. don't trade based on hope
I been trading approx. same system since later 1991, it trades more like a commercial, they buy/sell near major turns but less volume at extremes. System seeks moves based on last nine years and percentage from the extremes to start trying to find when they are in zones of reversals, look to make 75% of range of this 9 year range, system does many rollovers and stay in often times years in overall original direction of underlying. It was a simple system when started, but has evolved into more complex due to all the hedging that is done, but I also apply this to trading stocks, anything over 29 minutes gets hedged, small percentages when nothing works and do lose money, but overall drawdowns are minimal. It can now make profits during some retracements when intermediate topping/bottoming form. I never trade on "hope", I don't really understand that concept but most likely the stats are against your position and need to hedge.